Corinthians 1-1 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Corinthians (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Corinthians face Cuiaba.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Neo Química Arena plays host to Corinthians versus Cuiaba in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 10 June 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Corinthians's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Corinthians's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Neo Química Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cuiaba have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cuiaba's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Corinthians's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Cuiaba's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Corinthians, 1 for Cuiaba and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Corinthians winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Corinthians half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 46% versus Cuiaba 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Corinthians 36% | Cuiaba 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.25 xG and Cuiaba 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 1.070 / defence 0.823 | Cuiaba attack 0.905 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.087. Data: 47 Corinthians games / 47 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 44% | Draw 35% | Cuiaba 21%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 2.27 | Draw 2.86 | Cuiaba 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Corinthians are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Corinthians if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Corinthians 30% | Cuiaba 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jun 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 44% | Draw 35% | Cuiaba 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Corinthians 1.25 / Cuiaba 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 1.070 / def 0.823 | Cuiaba attack 0.905 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Cuiaba xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Cuiaba kick off?
Corinthians vs Cuiaba kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 10 June 2023 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Cuiaba?
Corinthians 1 - 1 Cuiaba.
Where is Corinthians vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Cuiaba part of?
Corinthians vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 44% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 21% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Corinthians and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Cuiaba?
Record (4 meetings): Corinthians 3W | Draws 0 | Cuiaba 1W.
What form are Corinthians and Cuiaba in?
Corinthians (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Corinthians's attack at 1.07x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.91x) against Corinthians's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
44%
2.28
35%
2.86
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.06
0.81
Cuiaba xG
2.28
44%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
19%
5.13
6%
16.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.81 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Corinthians come into this having played 76 games, going 33W 23D 20L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Cuiaba sit at 1.16 PPG from 76 outings (20W 28D 28L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Corinthians carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Corinthians's home form reads 22W 9D 7L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Cuiaba have taken 0.92 points per game from 38 outings (7W 14D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Corinthians are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.86 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 33W 23D 20L in their last 76 games (1.61 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 20W 28D 28L in their last 76 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Cuiaba away?
Corinthians's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.97 PPG; Cuiaba away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Corinthians or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Corinthians have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Corinthians
2
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 5, Cuiaba have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2024, when Cuiaba 0-1 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Cuiaba?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 47%, Cuiaba 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for Corinthians and 34% for Cuiaba.
On the defensive side: Corinthians keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Cuiaba in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Corinthians's recent matches and 42% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Corinthians vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Corinthians's recent games and 34% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Corinthians and Cuiaba share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 10, as Corinthians and Cuiaba drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.25 xG and Cuiaba 0.81 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.07 / defence 0.82 against Cuiaba attack 0.91 / defence 0.85, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 44% | Draw 35% | Cuiaba 21%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 36%, Cuiaba 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Cuiaba's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Corinthians arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.