Corinthians 3-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Corinthians at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Corinthians vs Bahia encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Corinthians welcome Bahia to Neo Química Arena in Serie A (matchday 37). Kick-off is Tuesday 3 December 2024 at 23:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Corinthians stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Corinthians's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Bahia have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bahia's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Corinthians are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Corinthians's last 10 home games and Bahia's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Corinthians have won 2, Bahia 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Jul 2024, ended Corinthians 1–0 Bahia — a Corinthians win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Corinthians in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Bahia in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 55% versus Bahia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Corinthians 43% | Bahia 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 2.35 xG and Bahia 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 1.410 / defence 1.037 | Bahia attack 1.146 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.045. Corinthians carry an above-average attack rating of 1.410 — their 2.35 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Bahia's defence rating of 1.242 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Corinthians's projected output up. Data: built from Corinthians's last 74 games and Bahia's last 74.

Result probabilities: Corinthians 61% | Draw 21% | Bahia 18%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 1.64 | Draw 4.78 | Bahia 5.54. The model has a clear lean to Corinthians (61%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.35 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Corinthians are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Corinthians's last 10 home games and Bahia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Corinthians 80% (last 10 home games) | Bahia 80% (last 10 away games).

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