Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Palmeiras (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chapecoense-sc face Palmeiras.

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Match Analysis

Chapecoense-sc host Palmeiras at in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Chapecoense-sc — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chapecoense-sc's home record at : 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Palmeiras's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Palmeiras — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Palmeiras, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Chapecoense-sc.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Palmeiras winning.

It is worth noting that Palmeiras have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Chapecoense-sc in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Palmeiras in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chapecoense-sc 62% and Palmeiras 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chapecoense-sc 54% | Palmeiras 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 1.10 xG and Palmeiras 2.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.918 / defence 1.533 | Palmeiras attack 1.397 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.176. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.397 — the away xG of 2.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 Chapecoense-sc games / 63 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 13% | Draw 20% | Palmeiras 67%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 7.69 | Draw 5.00 | Palmeiras 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.10 / 2.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.62 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Chapecoense-sc 60% | Palmeiras 50% BTTS from recent games.

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