Chapecoense-sc 1-2 Internacional – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Internacional at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chapecoense-sc host Internacional at Arena Condá in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 24 June 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 0.88 xG and Internacional 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.666 / defence 1.199 | Internacional attack 0.889 / defence 1.474. League average goals — home 0.901 / away 0.995. Chapecoense-sc's attack strength of 0.666 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Internacional bring a strong defensive rating of 1.474 — this is suppressing Chapecoense-sc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Chapecoense-sc games / 5 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 30% | Draw 31% | Internacional 39%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Internacional 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Internacional as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Internacional offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Jun 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 30% | Draw 31% | Internacional 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Chapecoense-sc 0.88 / Internacional 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.666 / def 1.199 | Internacional attack 0.889 / def 1.474 | league avg home 0.901 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: Internacional (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Internacional xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 24 June 2021 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional?
Chapecoense-sc 1 - 2 Internacional.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 30% chance of winning, Internacional a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Internacional?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Internacional in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chapecoense-sc's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Internacional's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Chapecoense-sc's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
30%
3.36
31%
3.21
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
1.94
1.06
Internacional xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
16%
6.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 15.2 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.06 for Internacional, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
Internacional
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Internacional go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Oct 2021, when Internacional won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
0
Draws
3
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Internacional?
From 3 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Internacional have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Internacional 2-0 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Internacional edge out Chapecoense-sc 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Chapecoense-sc 1-2 at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 0.88 xG and Internacional 1.06 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Internacional outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.67 / defence 1.20 against Internacional attack 0.89 / defence 1.47, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 30% | Draw 31% | Internacional 39%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.