Chapecoense-sc 0-0 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ceara at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chapecoense-sc vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Ceara travel to Arena Condá to take on Chapecoense-sc. The game is scheduled for Monday 14 June 2021, 00:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 1.18 xG and Ceara 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.796 / defence 1.390 | Ceara attack 0.865 / defence 1.425. League average goals — home 1.042 / away 1.070. Chapecoense-sc's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ceara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.425 — this is suppressing Chapecoense-sc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Chapecoense-sc games / 2 Ceara games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 34% | Draw 27% | Ceara 39%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Ceara 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ceara at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ceara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Monday 14 Jun 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 34% | Draw 27% | Ceara 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Chapecoense-sc 1.18 / Ceara 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.796 / def 1.390 | Ceara attack 0.865 / def 1.425 | league avg home 1.042 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Ceara (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Ceara xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Ceara kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Ceara kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 14 June 2021 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Ceara?
Chapecoense-sc 0 - 0 Ceara.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Ceara part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 34% chance of winning, Ceara a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Ceara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Ceara in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chapecoense-sc's attack at 0.80x the league average against Ceara's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ceara's attack versus Chapecoense-sc's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
34%
2.95
27%
3.68
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
2.47
1.29
Ceara xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
9%
10.66
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.29 for Ceara, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
Ceara
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chapecoense-sc and Ceara runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
1
Draws
1
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Ceara?
From 2 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Ceara have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2021, when Ceara 1-0 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Ceara?
Ceara have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Chapecoense-sc's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 3, as Chapecoense-sc and Ceara drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 1.18 xG and Ceara 1.29 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Ceara landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.80 / defence 1.39 against Ceara attack 0.86 / defence 1.43, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 34% | Draw 27% | Ceara 39%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.