Ceara 1-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ceara at 42%, yet in-form Fluminense provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ceara vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Fluminense travel to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to take on Ceara. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ceara — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Ceara at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ceara are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fluminense are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ceara, 0 for Fluminense and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Jul 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Ceara in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Fluminense in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 54% versus Fluminense 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ceara 36% | Fluminense 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.14 xG and Fluminense 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.936 / defence 1.030 | Fluminense attack 0.778 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 0.940 / away 0.994. Fluminense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Ceara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Ceara games / 28 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 42% | Draw 34% | Fluminense 24%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Fluminense 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ceara are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fluminense (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ceara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ceara 40% | Fluminense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 42% | Draw 34% | Fluminense 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Ceara 1.14 / Fluminense 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.936 / def 1.030 | Fluminense attack 0.778 / def 1.299 | league avg home 0.940 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Ceara (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Fluminense xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Fluminense kick off?
Ceara vs Fluminense kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Fluminense?
Ceara 1 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Ceara vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Fluminense part of?
Ceara vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 42% chance of winning, Fluminense a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ceara and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Fluminense?
Record (1 meetings): Ceara 0W | Draws 1 | Fluminense 0W.
What form are Ceara and Fluminense in?
Ceara (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Fluminense (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ceara's attack rating (0.94) and Fluminense's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
42%
2.38
34%
2.91
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Ceara xG
Total xG
1.94
0.80
Fluminense xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
8%
13.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 11.5 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Ceara and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Ceara and 0.80 for Fluminense, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ceara come into this having played 28 games, going 6W 15D 7L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, Fluminense sit at 1.39 PPG from 28 outings (10W 9D 9L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ceara on 1.18 PPG, Fluminense on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ceara's home form reads 6W 6D 2L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Ceara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fluminense have taken 1.14 points per game from 14 outings (4W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ceara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ceara are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.00 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 6W 15D 7L in their last 28 games (1.18 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 10W 9D 9L in their last 28 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Fluminense away?
Ceara's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.71 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Ceara or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Fluminense in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ceara's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ceara
1
Draws
3
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Fluminense?
From 6 meetings on record, Ceara have won 2, Fluminense have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Ceara 2-0 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ceara see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 57%, Fluminense 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ceara) and 36% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Fluminense in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Ceara's recent matches and 43% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ceara vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Ceara's recent games and 36% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Ceara edge out Fluminense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ceara beat Fluminense 1-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.14 xG and Fluminense 0.80 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.94 / defence 1.03 against Fluminense attack 0.78 / defence 1.30, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 42% | Draw 34% | Fluminense 24%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 36%, Fluminense 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fluminense's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ceara 1.18 PPG, Fluminense 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ceara win broke the near-deadlock. Ceara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.