Botafogo 1-1 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juventude make the trip to Estádio Nilton Santos to face Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Juventude's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Juventude's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.48 xG and Juventude 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 0.820 / defence 1.422 | Juventude attack 1.027 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 0.928. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Botafogo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Botafogo games / 41 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 40% | Draw 25% | Juventude 35%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Juventude 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Botafogo are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 40% | Draw 25% | Juventude 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Botafogo 1.48 / Juventude 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 0.820 / def 1.422 | Juventude attack 1.027 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.413 / away 0.928 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Juventude xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Juventude kick off?
Botafogo vs Juventude kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Juventude?
Botafogo 1 - 1 Juventude.
Where is Botafogo vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Juventude part of?
Botafogo vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 40% chance of winning, Juventude a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Botafogo and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Juventude?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Botafogo and Juventude in?
Juventude (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Juventude away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 0.82x the league average against Juventude's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (1.03x) against Botafogo's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
40%
2.48
25%
4.00
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.84
1.35
Juventude xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
8%
12.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.35 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Pre-Season
Juventude
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Botafogo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won 5-1 on 21 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Botafogo
2
Draws
1
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Juventude?
From 6 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 3, Juventude have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Juventude 1-3 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Juventude?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Botafogo and Juventude share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo and Juventude finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.48 xG and Juventude 1.35 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.82 / defence 1.42 against Juventude attack 1.03 / defence 1.28, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 40% | Draw 25% | Juventude 35%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.