Botafogo 1-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 56%, yet in-form Fluminense provide a compelling counter-argument — this Botafogo vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fluminense make the trip to Estádio Nilton Santos to face Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Wednesday 12 June 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Botafogo have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Botafogo at Estádio Nilton Santos this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Botafogo are significantly better at Estádio Nilton Santos than their overall form suggests.
Fluminense (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Fluminense away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Fluminense are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Botafogo 2W, Fluminense 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 2–0 with Botafogo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Botafogo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 43% versus Fluminense 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 40% | Fluminense 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.93 xG and Fluminense 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.264 / defence 1.009 | Fluminense attack 0.901 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.195. Botafogo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — their λ of 1.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fluminense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing Botafogo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Botafogo games / 45 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 56% | Draw 24% | Fluminense 20%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Fluminense 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Botafogo (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fluminense (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Botafogo 70% | Fluminense 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 Jun 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 56% | Draw 24% | Fluminense 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Botafogo 1.93 / Fluminense 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.264 / def 1.009 | Fluminense attack 0.901 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Fluminense xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Fluminense kick off?
Botafogo vs Fluminense kicked off at 00:00 on Wednesday 12 June 2024 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Fluminense?
Botafogo 1 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Botafogo vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Fluminense part of?
Botafogo vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 56% chance of winning, Fluminense a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Botafogo and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Fluminense?
Record (4 meetings): Botafogo 2W | Draws 1 | Fluminense 1W.
What form are Botafogo and Fluminense in?
Botafogo (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Fluminense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 1.26x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.90x) against Botafogo's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.25
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Botafogo xG
Total xG
3.02
1.09
Fluminense xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
3%
34.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.09 for Fluminense, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Fluminense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Botafogo come into this having played 76 games, going 33W 18D 25L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Fluminense sit at 1.66 PPG from 76 outings (37W 15D 24L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Botafogo against 1.66 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Botafogo's home form reads 17W 8D 13L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Fluminense have taken 1.16 points per game from 38 outings (12W 8D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Attack vs Defence
Botafogo are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.50 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 33W 18D 25L in their last 76 games (1.54 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 37W 15D 24L in their last 76 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Fluminense away?
Botafogo's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.55 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Fluminense in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Fluminense have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Botafogo
1
Draws
3
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Fluminense?
From 9 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 5, Fluminense have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Fluminense 1-0 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Fluminense?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 42%, Fluminense 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Botafogo) and 42% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Fluminense in 32%; Botafogo have failed to score in 26% of games; Fluminense in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Botafogo's recent matches and 34% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Botafogo's recent games and 42% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Fluminense tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Fluminense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Fluminense 1-0 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.93 xG and Fluminense 1.09 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Botafogo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Fluminense landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.26 / defence 1.01 against Fluminense attack 0.90 / defence 1.29, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 56% | Draw 24% | Fluminense 20%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 40%, Fluminense 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fluminense's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.54 PPG, Fluminense 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.