Botafogo 1-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fluminense make the trip to Estádio Nilton Santos to face Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 May 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Botafogo have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Botafogo at Estádio Nilton Santos this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fluminense (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fluminense away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Botafogo, 1.90 for Fluminense — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Botafogo have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Fluminense in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Botafogo 0W, Fluminense 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Botafogo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 40% versus Fluminense 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 37% | Fluminense 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.75 xG and Fluminense 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.249 / defence 0.739 | Fluminense attack 1.263 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.207. Fluminense have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 1.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Botafogo's defence rating of 0.739 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Botafogo games / 44 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 49% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 22%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Fluminense 4.55. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 58% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Botafogo 30% | Fluminense 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 49% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Botafogo 1.75 / Fluminense 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.249 / def 0.739 | Fluminense attack 1.263 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Fluminense xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Fluminense kick off?
Botafogo vs Fluminense kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Fluminense?
Botafogo 1 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Botafogo vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Fluminense part of?
Botafogo vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 49% chance of winning, Fluminense a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Botafogo and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Fluminense?
Record (2 meetings): Botafogo 0W | Draws 1 | Fluminense 1W.
What form are Botafogo and Fluminense in?
Botafogo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Fluminense (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 1.25x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (1.26x) against Botafogo's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
49%
2.02
29%
3.50
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.88
1.13
Fluminense xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
4%
26.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.13 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Botafogo come into this having played 38 games, going 15W 8D 15L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Fluminense sit at 1.84 PPG from 38 outings (21W 7D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Fluminense carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Botafogo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Botafogo's home form reads 6W 4D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Fluminense have taken 1.63 points per game from 19 outings (9W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Botafogo are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.66 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 15W 8D 15L in their last 38 games (1.39 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 21W 7D 10L in their last 38 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Fluminense away?
Fluminense's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.16 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Fluminense in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Fluminense have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Botafogo
1
Draws
3
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Fluminense?
From 9 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 5, Fluminense have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Fluminense 1-0 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Fluminense?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 37%, Fluminense 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Botafogo) and 42% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Fluminense in 42%; Botafogo have failed to score in 42% of games; Fluminense in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Botafogo's recent matches and 37% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Botafogo's recent games and 42% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Fluminense tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Fluminense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Fluminense 1-0 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.75 xG and Fluminense 1.13 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fluminense landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.25 / defence 0.74 against Fluminense attack 1.26 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 49% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 22%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 37%, Fluminense 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Botafogo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Botafogo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.