Botafogo 1-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Botafogo vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 22 as Botafogo welcome Flamengo to Estádio Nilton Santos. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 September 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Botafogo — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Estádio Nilton Santos this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nilton Santos. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — Botafogo are significantly better at Estádio Nilton Santos than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Flamengo stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Flamengo have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Botafogo have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Botafogo, 1 for Flamengo and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 3–2 with Botafogo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Botafogo in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 37% versus Flamengo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 39% | Flamengo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 2.37 xG and Flamengo 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.447 / defence 0.709 | Flamengo attack 1.353 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 0.921. Botafogo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.447 — their λ of 2.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Flamengo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Botafogo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — the away xG of 0.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Botafogo's defence rating of 0.709 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Botafogo games / 59 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 69% | Draw 19% | Flamengo 11%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Flamengo 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Botafogo (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Botafogo 20% | Flamengo 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 69% | Draw 19% | Flamengo 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 54% | xG Botafogo 2.37 / Flamengo 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.447 / def 0.709 | Flamengo attack 1.353 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.359 / away 0.921 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Flamengo xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Flamengo kick off?
Botafogo vs Flamengo kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Botafogo 1 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Botafogo vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Flamengo part of?
Botafogo vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 69% chance of winning, Flamengo a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Botafogo and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Flamengo?
Record (3 meetings): Botafogo 2W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Botafogo and Flamengo in?
Botafogo (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Flamengo (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Botafogo's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.37. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
69%
1.44
19%
5.18
11%
8.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Botafogo xG
Total xG
3.25
0.88
Flamengo xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
8.83
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
9%
10.64
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
1%
94.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.88 for Flamengo, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Botafogo's recent record stands at 31W 11D 17L from 59 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 28W 14D 17L across 59 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Botafogo on 1.76 PPG, Flamengo on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Botafogo have managed 17W 4D 9L from 30 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 12W 7D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Botafogo are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.59 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 31W 11D 17L in their last 59 games (1.76 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 28W 14D 17L in their last 59 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Flamengo away?
Botafogo's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.83 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Flamengo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Flamengo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Aug 2024, when Botafogo won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Botafogo's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Botafogo
1
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Flamengo?
From 9 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 4, Flamengo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Botafogo 0-3 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 33%, Flamengo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Botafogo) and 60% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Botafogo have failed to score in 27% of games; Flamengo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Botafogo's recent matches and 67% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Botafogo's recent games and 60% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Flamengo tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Flamengo defy the odds to beat Botafogo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Botafogo 1-2 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 2.37 xG and Flamengo 0.88 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Botafogo fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Flamengo outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.45 / defence 0.71 against Flamengo attack 1.35 / defence 1.20, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 69% | Draw 19% | Flamengo 11%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Flamengo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 39%, Flamengo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Flamengo's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.76 PPG, Flamengo 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.