Botafogo 1-3 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Botafogo host Corinthians at Estádio Nilton Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Corinthians — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Corinthians have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.11 xG and Corinthians 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Corinthians attack 0.951 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 0.877. Data: 0 Botafogo games / 38 Corinthians games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Botafogo 37% | Draw 33% | Corinthians 30%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Corinthians 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Botafogo as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Botafogo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 37% | Draw 33% | Corinthians 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Botafogo 1.11 / Corinthians 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Corinthians attack 0.951 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.332 / away 0.877 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Corinthians xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Corinthians kick off?
Botafogo vs Corinthians kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Corinthians?
Botafogo 1 - 3 Corinthians.
Where is Botafogo vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Corinthians part of?
Botafogo vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 37% chance of winning, Corinthians a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Botafogo and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Corinthians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Botafogo and Corinthians in?
Corinthians (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Corinthians away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Botafogo's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Corinthians's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
37%
2.68
33%
3.05
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.06
0.96
Corinthians xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
10%
10.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.96 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Pre-Season
Corinthians
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2023, when Botafogo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Botafogo's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Botafogo
2
Draws
3
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Corinthians?
From 9 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 4, Corinthians have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Botafogo 3-1 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Corinthians?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Corinthians cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Botafogo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Botafogo 1-3 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.11 xG and Corinthians 0.96 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Corinthians outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Corinthians attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 37% | Draw 33% | Corinthians 30%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Corinthians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.