Bahia 1-1 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bahia face Mirassol.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bahia and Mirassol meet at Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A (matchday 3). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 April 2025 at 21:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bahia have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bahia at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bahia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.59 xG and Mirassol 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.927 / defence 1.026 | Mirassol attack 0.881 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 0.897. Data: built from Bahia's last 40 games and Mirassol's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bahia 53% | Draw 31% | Mirassol 16%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.88 | Draw 3.25 | Mirassol 6.20. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Bahia 40 games, Mirassol 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, matchday 3 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 53% | Draw 31% | Mirassol 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Bahia 1.59 / Mirassol 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.927 / def 1.026 | Mirassol attack 0.881 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.435 / away 0.897 • Poisson stance: Bahia (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Mirassol xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bahia vs Mirassol FAQs
What time does Bahia vs Mirassol kick off?
Bahia vs Mirassol kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Mirassol?
Bahia 1 - 1 Mirassol.
Where is Bahia vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Mirassol part of?
Bahia vs Mirassol is a Serie A fixture (matchday 3) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 53% chance of winning, Mirassol a 16% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bahia and Mirassol will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Bahia vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bahia's attack rating (0.93) and Mirassol's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (0.88x) against Bahia's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Bahia's last 40 games and Mirassol's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
53%
1.88
31%
3.25
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.41
0.81
Mirassol xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
3%
30.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.7 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bahia vs Mirassol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bahia and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Bahia and 0.81 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Pre-Season
Mirassol
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Bahia (Home) vs Mirassol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bahia
Pre-Season
Mirassol
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Bahia have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mirassol won Mirassol 5-1 Bahia on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mirassol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bahia
1
Draws
1
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Bahia vs Mirassol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Mirassol?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Bahia have won 2, Mirassol have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bahia and Mirassol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Bahia 1-0 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Mirassol?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Bahia and Mirassol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 3, as Bahia and Mirassol drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.59 xG and Mirassol 0.81 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Mirassol attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 53% | Draw 31% | Mirassol 16%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.