Bahia 1-0 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bahia and Juventude meet at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 7 July 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bahia's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 3L from 9 games (1.56 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.89 goals per game, with 1.44 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos this season: 2W 1D 2L from 5 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Juventude (all games): 3W 3D 3L across 9 Serie A outings this term — 1.33 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 1.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Juventude have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.33 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.56 PPG for Bahia against 1.33 for Juventude. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Bahia — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Juventude — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 56% versus Juventude 22%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 67% | Juventude 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.28 xG and Juventude 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.139 / defence 1.229 | Juventude attack 0.731 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 0.920 / away 1.067. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Bahia games / 9 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 44% | Draw 29% | Juventude 28%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Juventude 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 40% | Juventude 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Governador Roberto Santos • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Jul 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 44% | Draw 29% | Juventude 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Bahia 1.28 / Juventude 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.139 / def 1.229 | Juventude attack 0.731 / def 1.225 | league avg home 0.920 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Bahia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Juventude xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Juventude kick off?
Bahia vs Juventude kicked off at 22:00 on Wednesday 7 July 2021 at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Juventude?
Bahia 1 - 0 Juventude.
Where is Bahia vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos.
What competition is Bahia vs Juventude part of?
Bahia vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 44% chance of winning, Juventude a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bahia and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Juventude?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bahia and Juventude in?
Bahia (all comps): 4W-2D-3L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 1.89 / GA 1.44 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Juventude (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.14) and Juventude's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.73x) against Bahia's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
44%
2.28
29%
3.50
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.24
0.96
Juventude xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
8%
13.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bahia and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Bahia and 0.96 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bahia's recent record stands at 4W 2D 3L from 9 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventude, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 3L across 9 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Bahia against 1.33 for Juventude. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bahia have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.56 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Juventude's away record stands at 0W 3D 1L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juventude's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bahia are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.78 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude in 22%.
Defensively: Juventude in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Juventude
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Juventude in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 games (1.56 PPG), while Juventude have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Juventude away?
Bahia's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.00 PPG; Juventude away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Bahia or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Juventude in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 28 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 3-0 on 27 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bahia
2
Draws
1
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Juventude?
From 6 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Juventude have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 28 November 2025, when Juventude 1-1 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Juventude?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Juventude see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 50%, Juventude 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bahia) and 25% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Bahia have failed to score in 50% of games; Juventude in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Juventude?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bahia's recent matches and 50% of Juventude's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bahia's recent games and 25% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Juventude tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Juventude in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bahia edge out Juventude 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Juventude 1-0 at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.28 xG and Juventude 0.96 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Juventude landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.14 / defence 1.23 against Juventude attack 0.73 / defence 1.23, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 44% | Draw 29% | Juventude 28%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 67%, Juventude 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Juventude's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.56 PPG, Juventude 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.