Bahia 2-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bahia and Fluminense meet at Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Bahia (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Arena Fonte Nova, Bahia have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fluminense have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fluminense away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Bahia against 1.50 for Fluminense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bahia, 1 for Fluminense and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Fluminense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bahia half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Fluminense half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 39% versus Fluminense 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bahia 44% | Fluminense 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.31 xG and Fluminense 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.085 / defence 1.282 | Fluminense attack 0.711 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 0.996 / away 0.910. Fluminense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Bahia games / 36 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 48% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 24%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Fluminense 4.17. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bahia 60% | Fluminense 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 48% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Bahia 1.31 / Fluminense 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.085 / def 1.282 | Fluminense attack 0.711 / def 1.209 | league avg home 0.996 / away 0.910 • Poisson stance: Bahia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Fluminense xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Fluminense kick off?
Bahia vs Fluminense kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Fluminense?
Bahia 2 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Bahia vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Fluminense part of?
Bahia vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 48% chance of winning, Fluminense a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bahia and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Fluminense?
Record (1 meetings): Bahia 0W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 1W.
What form are Bahia and Fluminense in?
Bahia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Fluminense (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.08) and Fluminense's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.71x) against Bahia's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
48%
2.09
29%
3.51
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.14
0.83
Fluminense xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
6%
15.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bahia and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Bahia and 0.83 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 10W 10D 16L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Fluminense's form line: 14W 9D 13L from 36 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Bahia against 1.42 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bahia have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
On the road, Fluminense have gone 4W 4D 10L from 18 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bahia are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 0.97 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 10W 10D 16L in their last 36 games (1.11 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 14W 9D 13L in their last 36 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Fluminense away?
Bahia's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.44 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Bahia or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fluminense in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bahia
3
Draws
4
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Fluminense have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2026, when Fluminense 0-0 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bahia see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 44%, Fluminense 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bahia) and 33% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bahia have failed to score in 33% of games; Fluminense in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bahia's recent matches and 39% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bahia's recent games and 33% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Bahia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fluminense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Fluminense 2-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.31 xG and Fluminense 0.83 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fluminense landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.08 / defence 1.28 against Fluminense attack 0.71 / defence 1.21, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 48% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 24%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 44%, Fluminense 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fluminense's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.11 PPG, Fluminense 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.