Bahia vs Coritiba – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 36 as Bahia welcome Coritiba to Arena Fonte Nova. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Fonte Nova, Bahia have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coritiba stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coritiba's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Bahia) versus 1.70 (Coritiba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bahia, 1 for Coritiba and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2026, ended 2–3 with Coritiba winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bahia in-play and half-time data (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Coritiba in-play and half-time data (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 64% versus Coritiba 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 48% | Coritiba 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.54 xG and Coritiba 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.029 / defence 0.944 | Coritiba attack 1.009 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.176. Data: 63 Bahia games / 25 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 45% | Draw 30% | Coritiba 25%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Coritiba 4.00. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 70% | Coritiba 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 45% | Draw 30% | Coritiba 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Bahia 1.54 / Coritiba 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.029 / def 0.944 | Coritiba attack 1.009 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Bahia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Coritiba xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Coritiba kick off?
Bahia vs Coritiba is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova.
Where is Bahia vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Coritiba part of?
Bahia vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 45% chance of winning, Coritiba a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bahia and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Coritiba?
Record (3 meetings): Bahia 2W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 1W.
What form are Bahia and Coritiba in?
Bahia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Coritiba (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bahia's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Coritiba's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
45%
2.25
30%
3.32
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.66
1.12
Coritiba xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
5%
18.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bahia and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Bahia and 1.12 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bahia come into this having played 25 games, going 10W 10D 5L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Coritiba sit at 1.48 PPG from 25 outings (10W 7D 8L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bahia on 1.60 PPG, Coritiba on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bahia's home form reads 5W 6D 2L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Coritiba have taken 1.46 points per game from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Bahia are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.32 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bahia have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Coritiba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 10W 10D 5L in their last 25 games (1.60 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 10W 7D 8L in their last 25 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Coritiba away?
Bahia's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.62 PPG; Coritiba away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Bahia or Coritiba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Coritiba in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bahia and Coritiba runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Bahia
0
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Coritiba?
From 3 meetings on record, Bahia have won 2, Coritiba have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Coritiba 3-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Coritiba?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 69%, Coritiba 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bahia) and 54% (Coritiba).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Coritiba in 31%; Coritiba in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Coritiba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Bahia's games and 46% of Coritiba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bahia vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bahia's recent games and 54% of Coritiba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Coritiba tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.