Avai 1-2 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Avai at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Avai vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Avai and Cuiaba meet at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 July 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Avai's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Avai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Avai's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 1L across 7 games at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Avai are significantly better at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva than their overall form suggests.
Cuiaba (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Cuiaba have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Avai's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Cuiaba's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Avai half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avai 64% versus Cuiaba 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avai 64% | Cuiaba 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avai 1.66 xG and Cuiaba 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avai attack 1.124 / defence 1.341 | Cuiaba attack 0.825 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 0.983. Data: 14 Avai games / 52 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avai 50% | Draw 27% | Cuiaba 24%. Fair-value odds: Avai 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Cuiaba 4.17. Avai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Avai at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Avai if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Avai 86% | Cuiaba 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avai vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avai 50% | Draw 27% | Cuiaba 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Avai 1.66 / Cuiaba 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Avai attack 1.124 / def 1.341 | Cuiaba attack 0.825 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.299 / away 0.983 • Poisson stance: Avai (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Avai xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Cuiaba xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avai vs Cuiaba kick off?
Avai vs Cuiaba kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 July 2022 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What was the final score in Avai vs Cuiaba?
Avai 1 - 2 Cuiaba.
Where is Avai vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What competition is Avai vs Cuiaba part of?
Avai vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Avai vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Avai a 50% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Avai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avai vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Avai and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Avai vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Cuiaba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Avai and Cuiaba in?
Avai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Cuiaba (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Avai's attack at 1.12x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.82x) against Avai's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Avai Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.77
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Avai xG
Total xG
2.75
1.09
Cuiaba xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
4%
22.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avai vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Avai and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Avai and 1.09 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Avai vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Avai's recent record stands at 5W 3D 6L from 14 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Avai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cuiaba, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 7L across 14 games — 0.93 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Avai against 0.93 for Cuiaba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Avai have managed 4W 2D 1L from 7 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Avai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cuiaba's away record stands at 2W 0D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Avai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Avai are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.64 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Avai have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avai
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avai and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Avai have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avai at home or Cuiaba away?
Avai's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avai at home: 2.00 PPG; Cuiaba away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Avai
0
Draws
2
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Cuiaba?
From 2 meetings on record, Avai have won 0, Cuiaba have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Avai and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2022, when Cuiaba 1-0 Avai.
Who has won more matches between Avai and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Avai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Avai 86%, Cuiaba 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Avai) and 43% (Cuiaba). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avai home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avai play Cuiaba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Avai's games and 43% of Cuiaba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Avai vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Avai's matches and 43% of Cuiaba's.
Do Avai and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Avai have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cuiaba defy the odds to beat Avai 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Avai 1-2 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avai 1.66 xG and Cuiaba 1.09 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cuiaba outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avai attack 1.12 / defence 1.34 against Cuiaba attack 0.82 / defence 1.14, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avai 50% | Draw 27% | Cuiaba 24%, with Avai to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Cuiaba win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avai 64%, Cuiaba 21%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Avai's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Cuiaba's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Avai 1.29 PPG, Cuiaba 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Avai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Cuiaba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.