Atletico Goianiense 0-0 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Goianiense vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atletico Goianiense and Fortaleza EC meet at Estádio Antônio Accioly in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 17 June 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 1.10 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 1.113 / defence 1.032 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.981 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 0.851 / away 1.087. Data: 2 Atletico Goianiense games / 3 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 35% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 36%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Fortaleza EC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Jun 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 35% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Atletico Goianiense 1.10 / Fortaleza EC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 1.113 / def 1.032 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.981 / def 1.159 | league avg home 0.851 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Fortaleza EC xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 17 June 2021 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Fortaleza EC?
Atletico Goianiense 0 - 0 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 35% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Fortaleza EC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Fortaleza EC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Atletico Goianiense's attack rating (1.11) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortaleza EC's attack (0.98x) against Atletico Goianiense's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 2/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
35%
2.83
29%
3.43
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
2.20
1.10
Fortaleza EC xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
12%
8.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.10 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Pre-Season
Fortaleza EC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Goianiense won 0-3 on 2 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Goianiense have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fortaleza EC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Atletico Goianiense
2
Draws
2
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Fortaleza EC?
From 6 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 2, Fortaleza EC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2024, when Atletico Goianiense 3-1 Fortaleza EC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Atletico Goianiense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 4, as Atletico Goianiense and Fortaleza EC drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 1.10 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atletico Goianiense fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Fortaleza EC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 1.11 / defence 1.03 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.98 / defence 1.16, drawn from 2/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 35% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 36%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.