America Mineiro 2-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as America Mineiro take on Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palmeiras make the trip to Estádio Raimundo Sampaio to face America Mineiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Thursday 7 October 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Form
America Mineiro (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, America Mineiro have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Palmeiras have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward America Mineiro. A 0.60 PPG lead over Palmeiras (1.70 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — America Mineiro have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Palmeiras in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for America Mineiro, 1 for Palmeiras and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2021, ended 1–2 with Palmeiras winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
America Mineiro goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Palmeiras goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 41% versus Palmeiras 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (America Mineiro 14% | Palmeiras 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 0.88 xG and Palmeiras 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.888 / defence 0.915 | Palmeiras attack 0.963 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 1.050. Data: 23 America Mineiro games / 22 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 30% | Draw 37% | Palmeiras 33%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 3.33 | Draw 2.70 | Palmeiras 3.03. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: America Mineiro 30% | Palmeiras 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Oct 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 30% | Draw 37% | Palmeiras 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG America Mineiro 0.88 / Palmeiras 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.888 / def 0.915 | Palmeiras attack 0.963 / def 1.095 | league avg home 0.900 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Palmeiras xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Palmeiras kick off?
America Mineiro vs Palmeiras kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 7 October 2021 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Palmeiras?
America Mineiro 2 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is America Mineiro vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Palmeiras part of?
America Mineiro vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 30% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 33% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both America Mineiro and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Palmeiras?
Record (1 meetings): America Mineiro 0W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 1W.
What form are America Mineiro and Palmeiras in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates America Mineiro's attack at 0.89x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (0.96x) against America Mineiro's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.33
37%
2.69
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
1.80
0.93
Palmeiras xG
3.33
30%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
14%
7.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 15.3 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for America Mineiro and 0.93 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
America Mineiro's recent record stands at 6W 9D 7L from 22 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras, meanwhile, have gone 12W 3D 7L across 22 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over America Mineiro heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, America Mineiro have managed 4W 3D 3L from 10 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palmeiras's away record stands at 5W 1D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
America Mineiro are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.55 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 6W 9D 7L in their last 22 games (1.23 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 12W 3D 7L in their last 22 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 1.50 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.60 PPG.
Have America Mineiro or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
America Mineiro have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, America Mineiro have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
America Mineiro
0
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Palmeiras?
From 6 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 1, Palmeiras have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2023, when Palmeiras 4-0 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
America Mineiro see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 30% (America Mineiro) and 30% (Palmeiras) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for America Mineiro and 50% for Palmeiras.
On the defensive side: America Mineiro keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Palmeiras in 50%; America Mineiro have failed to score in 30% of games; Palmeiras in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 30% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is America Mineiro vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of America Mineiro's recent games and 50% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do America Mineiro and Palmeiras tend to score early?
America Mineiro have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as America Mineiro defy the odds to beat Palmeiras 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
America Mineiro beat Palmeiras 2-1 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 0.88 xG and Palmeiras 0.93 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. America Mineiro beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.89 / defence 0.92 against Palmeiras attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 30% | Draw 37% | Palmeiras 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual America Mineiro win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 14%, Palmeiras 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with America Mineiro winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. America Mineiro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Palmeiras (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.