America Mineiro 0-2 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates America Mineiro at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this America Mineiro vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ceara make the trip to Estádio Raimundo Sampaio to face America Mineiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Wednesday 8 June 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
America Mineiro's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
America Mineiro at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — America Mineiro are significantly better at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio than their overall form suggests.
Ceara (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Ceara have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for America Mineiro against 1.70 for Ceara. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — America Mineiro lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
America Mineiro half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Ceara half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 42% versus Ceara 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (America Mineiro 24% | Ceara 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 1.28 xG and Ceara 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 1.200 / defence 0.901 | Ceara attack 1.078 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 0.960. Data: 47 America Mineiro games / 47 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 44% | Draw 29% | Ceara 27%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Ceara 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is America Mineiro at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on America Mineiro if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: America Mineiro 40% | Ceara 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Wednesday 8 Jun 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 44% | Draw 29% | Ceara 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG America Mineiro 1.28 / Ceara 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 1.200 / def 0.901 | Ceara attack 1.078 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.232 / away 0.960 • Poisson stance: America Mineiro (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Ceara xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Ceara kick off?
America Mineiro vs Ceara kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 8 June 2022 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Ceara?
America Mineiro 0 - 2 Ceara.
Where is America Mineiro vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Ceara part of?
America Mineiro vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 44% chance of winning, Ceara a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making America Mineiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both America Mineiro and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Ceara?
Record (2 meetings): America Mineiro 1W | Draws 1 | Ceara 0W.
What form are America Mineiro and Ceara in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Ceara (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from America Mineiro's attack rating (1.20) and Ceara's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ceara's attack (1.08x) against America Mineiro's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
America Mineiro Win
44%
2.25
29%
3.50
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
2.21
0.93
Ceara xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
8%
13.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for America Mineiro and 0.93 for Ceara, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, America Mineiro have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 13W 14D 11L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Ceara's form line: 11W 17D 10L from 38 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for America Mineiro against 1.32 for Ceara. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, America Mineiro have posted 1.74 PPG from 19 outings (9W 6D 4L).
On the road, Ceara have gone 1W 10D 8L from 19 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ceara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, America Mineiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
America Mineiro are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 1.03 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Ceara in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Current Season
Ceara
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and Ceara in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 13W 14D 11L in their last 38 games (1.39 PPG), while Ceara have gone 11W 17D 10L in their last 38 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Ceara away?
America Mineiro's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 1.74 PPG; Ceara away: 0.68 PPG.
Have America Mineiro or Ceara been keeping clean sheets recently?
America Mineiro have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Ceara in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, America Mineiro have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ceara — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
America Mineiro
1
Draws
1
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Ceara?
From 4 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 2, Ceara have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2022, when Ceara 1-2 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and Ceara?
America Mineiro have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
America Mineiro see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — America Mineiro 32%, Ceara 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for America Mineiro and 37% for Ceara.
On the defensive side: America Mineiro keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Ceara in 32%; America Mineiro have failed to score in 37% of games; Ceara in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play Ceara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 53% of Ceara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is America Mineiro vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of America Mineiro's recent games and 37% of Ceara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do America Mineiro and Ceara tend to score early?
America Mineiro have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Ceara in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ceara cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over America Mineiro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ceara beat America Mineiro 0-2 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 1.28 xG and Ceara 0.93 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. America Mineiro fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Ceara outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 1.20 / defence 0.90 against Ceara attack 1.08 / defence 0.87, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 44% | Draw 29% | Ceara 27%, with America Mineiro to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Ceara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 24%, Ceara 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ceara's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — America Mineiro 1.39 PPG, Ceara 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ceara win broke the near-deadlock. America Mineiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ceara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.