Zulte Waregem 0-2 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Zulte Waregem welcome Union St. Gilloise to Elindus Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 15 December 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 5L across 9 games at Elindus Arena this term (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise away from home this season: 7W 1D 1L from 9 away games — 2.44 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.78 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Union St. Gilloise's 2.40 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Zulte Waregem's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zulte Waregem register both teams scoring in 78% of relevant matches, Union St. Gilloise in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Zulte Waregem, 1 for Union St. Gilloise and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Zulte Waregem in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 78% and Union St. Gilloise 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zulte Waregem 78% | Union St. Gilloise 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.24 xG and Union St. Gilloise 3.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.069 / defence 1.603 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.409 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.466. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.409 — the away xG of 3.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Zulte Waregem games / 18 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 10% | Draw 12% | Union St. Gilloise 77%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 10.00 | Draw 8.33 | Union St. Gilloise 1.30. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (77%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 4.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 3.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 83% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 78% | Union St. Gilloise 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Dec 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 10% | Draw 12% | Union St. Gilloise 77% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 69% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.24 / Union St. Gilloise 3.31 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.069 / def 1.603 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.409 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
3.31
Union St. Gilloise xG
69%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 15 December 2021 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise?
Zulte Waregem 0 - 2 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 10% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 77% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (1 meetings): Zulte Waregem 0W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 1W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (1.07) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 3.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-3 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.2%), 1-4 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
10%
9.57
12%
8.01
77%
1.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 3
7.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
1 – 4
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
4.55
3.31
Union St. Gilloise xG
9.57
10%
Home win
8.01
12%
Draw
1.30
77%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
67%
Over 3.5
1.49
33%
Under 3.5
3.03
48%
Over 4.5
2.08
52%
Under 4.5
1.92
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
4%
27.47
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
0%
–
22%
4.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 3.5 |
| 1 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 4.3 |
| 2 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.7 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 3.31 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 4.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Zulte Waregem have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 4W 5D 9L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise's form line: 13W 1D 4L from 18 games, 2.22 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 1.28 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zulte Waregem.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zulte Waregem have posted 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L).
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 7W 1D 1L from 9 away games — 2.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.28 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 4W 5D 9L in their last 18 games (0.94 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 13W 1D 4L in their last 18 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 0.89 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.44 PPG.
Have Zulte Waregem or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zulte Waregem have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2023, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Zulte Waregem
0
Draws
6
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Union St. Gilloise 2-0 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zulte Waregem at 78%, Union St. Gilloise at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 89% for Zulte Waregem and 78% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Zulte Waregem's games and 67% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 89% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 78% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Zulte Waregem 0-2 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.24 xG and Union St. Gilloise 3.31 xG, a combined 4.55. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Zulte Waregem fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.07 / defence 1.60 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.41 / defence 0.99, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 10% | Draw 12% | Union St. Gilloise 77%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 77%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 67% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 78%, Union St. Gilloise 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.