Zulte Waregem 2-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem and Charleroi meet at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zulte Waregem have collected 1.00 PPG across 4 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 2L. Last five: D L W L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi (all games): 1W 3D 0L across 4 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Charleroi are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 75% and Charleroi 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 75% | Charleroi 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 0.81 xG and Charleroi 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.834 / defence 1.467 | Charleroi attack 0.917 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 0.928 / away 1.573. Data: 4 Zulte Waregem games / 4 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 13% | Draw 20% | Charleroi 67%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 7.69 | Draw 5.00 | Charleroi 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Zulte Waregem 75% | Charleroi 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 13% | Draw 20% | Charleroi 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 49% | xG Zulte Waregem 0.81 / Charleroi 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.834 / def 1.467 | Charleroi attack 0.917 / def 1.045 | league avg home 0.928 / away 1.573 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Charleroi xG
49%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Zulte Waregem 2 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 13% chance of winning, Charleroi a 67% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Charleroi in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L. Charleroi (all comps): 1W-3D-0L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 0.83x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.92x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 2.12.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
13%
7.77
20%
5.04
67%
1.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.93
2.12
Charleroi xG
7.77
13%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
1.49
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
12%
8.31
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
2%
64.60
30%
3.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 2.12 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Zulte Waregem have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 2L record — D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi's form line: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Charleroi are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zulte Waregem.
Attack vs Defence
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.25 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Charleroi in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 1W 3D 0L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
Have Zulte Waregem or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zulte Waregem have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Charleroi in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Zulte Waregem have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charleroi won 3-0 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Charleroi?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 2, Charleroi have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Zulte Waregem 1-0 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zulte Waregem see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 75%, Charleroi 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Zulte Waregem) and 25% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Zulte Waregem's games and 50% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 25% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and Charleroi tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zulte Waregem and Charleroi share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 5, as Zulte Waregem and Charleroi drew 2-2 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 0.81 xG and Charleroi 2.12 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.83 / defence 1.47 against Charleroi attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 13% | Draw 20% | Charleroi 67%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 75%, Charleroi 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Charleroi shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.