Zulte Waregem 5-5 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Eupen at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees AS Eupen travel to Elindus Arena to take on Zulte Waregem. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 November 2022, 17:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Zulte Waregem — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's home record at Elindus Arena: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Eupen stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zulte Waregem at 0.70 PPG versus AS Eupen's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Zulte Waregem have won 1, AS Eupen 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 3–0 with Zulte Waregem winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zulte Waregem trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
AS Eupen trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 60% versus AS Eupen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 64% | AS Eupen 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.85 xG and AS Eupen 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.870 / defence 1.579 | AS Eupen attack 0.882 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.387. AS Eupen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing Zulte Waregem's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Zulte Waregem games / 50 AS Eupen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 38% | Draw 21% | AS Eupen 41%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.63 | Draw 4.76 | AS Eupen 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Eupen are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates are neutral: Zulte Waregem 50% | AS Eupen 50%.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 38% | Draw 21% | AS Eupen 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.85 / AS Eupen 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.870 / def 1.579 | AS Eupen attack 0.882 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: AS Eupen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.93
AS Eupen xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen?
Zulte Waregem 5 - 5 AS Eupen.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen part of?
Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 38% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 41% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making AS Eupen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen?
Record (2 meetings): Zulte Waregem 1W | Draws 1 | AS Eupen 0W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. AS Eupen (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against AS Eupen's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, AS Eupen's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Eupen Win
38%
2.65
21%
4.69
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
3.78
1.93
AS Eupen xG
2.65
38%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.58
Clean Sheet
15%
6.90
16%
6.38
Win to Nil
5%
18.25
6%
15.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.93 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 50 games, going 11W 11D 28L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AS Eupen sit at 0.94 PPG from 50 outings (13W 8D 29L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zulte Waregem on 0.88 PPG, AS Eupen on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 7W 4D 14L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Eupen have taken 0.88 points per game from 25 outings (6W 4D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.12 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 11W 11D 28L in their last 50 games (0.88 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 13W 8D 29L in their last 50 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or AS Eupen away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.00 PPG; AS Eupen away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Zulte Waregem have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Zulte Waregem won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting AS Eupen specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Zulte Waregem
2
Draws
0
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 4, AS Eupen have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Zulte Waregem 3-2 AS Eupen.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 60%, AS Eupen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Zulte Waregem and 64% for AS Eupen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Eupen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play AS Eupen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Zulte Waregem's games and 52% of AS Eupen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 64% of AS Eupen's.
Do Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen share the spoils in a 5-5 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 17, as Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen drew 5-5 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.85 xG and AS Eupen 1.93 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 5-5 for 10 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AS Eupen outscored their 1.93 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.87 / defence 1.58 against AS Eupen attack 0.88 / defence 1.25, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 38% | Draw 21% | AS Eupen 41%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 64%, AS Eupen 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
AS Eupen's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 0.88 PPG, AS Eupen 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Eupen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.