Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Anderlecht make the trip to Elindus Arena to face Zulte Waregem in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Zulte Waregem's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's home record at Elindus Arena: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Anderlecht (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Anderlecht have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.90 for Anderlecht. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Zulte Waregem lead 3W to 4W over the last 7 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.6 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 0–3 with Anderlecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Anderlecht — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 54% versus Anderlecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 52% | Anderlecht 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.33 xG and Anderlecht 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.916 / defence 0.950 | Anderlecht attack 0.841 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.301. Data: 38 Zulte Waregem games / 38 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 43% | Draw 28% | Anderlecht 29%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Anderlecht 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zulte Waregem at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 40% | Anderlecht 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 43% | Draw 28% | Anderlecht 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.33 / Anderlecht 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.916 / def 0.950 | Anderlecht attack 0.841 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Anderlecht xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Elindus Arena.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 43% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht?
Record (7 meetings): Zulte Waregem 3W | Draws 0 | Anderlecht 4W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (0.84x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.63
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.37
1.04
Anderlecht xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
8%
12.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.04 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 16W 11D 17L from 44 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 16L across 44 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.41 for Anderlecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 10W 4D 8L from 22 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Anderlecht's away record stands at 5W 5D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Anderlecht's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.30 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 16W 11D 17L in their last 44 games (1.34 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 17W 11D 16L in their last 44 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Anderlecht away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.55 PPG; Anderlecht away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Anderlecht have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won 3-0 on 19 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Zulte Waregem
0
Draws
4
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht?
From 7 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 3, Anderlecht have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Anderlecht 3-0 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 46%, Anderlecht 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Zulte Waregem) and 50% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem have failed to score in 27% of games; Anderlecht in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 50% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 50% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.