Zulte Waregem 2-4 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Anderlecht make the trip to Elindus Arena to face Zulte Waregem in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Zulte Waregem's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's home record at Elindus Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Zulte Waregem are significantly better at Elindus Arena than their overall form suggests.
Anderlecht (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Anderlecht have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 0.90 for Anderlecht. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Zulte Waregem lead 3W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 3–2 with Zulte Waregem winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Anderlecht — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 65% versus Anderlecht 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 59% | Anderlecht 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.64 xG and Anderlecht 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.934 / defence 0.965 | Anderlecht attack 0.758 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.348. Anderlecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.385 — this is suppressing Zulte Waregem's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Zulte Waregem games / 55 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 52% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 22%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Anderlecht 4.55. Zulte Waregem hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zulte Waregem at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Zulte Waregem 50% | Anderlecht 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 52% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.64 / Anderlecht 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.934 / def 0.965 | Anderlecht attack 0.758 / def 1.385 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Anderlecht xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht?
Zulte Waregem 2 - 4 Anderlecht.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 52% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht?
Record (5 meetings): Zulte Waregem 3W | Draws 0 | Anderlecht 2W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Anderlecht (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (0.76x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
52%
1.91
25%
3.95
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.62
0.99
Anderlecht xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
20%
5.13
4%
22.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 0.99 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 25W 14D 15L from 54 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 24W 9D 21L across 54 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.50 for Anderlecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 16W 4D 6L from 26 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Anderlecht's away record stands at 10W 4D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.44 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Anderlecht in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 25W 14D 15L in their last 54 games (1.65 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 24W 9D 21L in their last 54 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Anderlecht away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 2.00 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Zulte Waregem or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zulte Waregem have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Zulte Waregem
0
Draws
3
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 3, Anderlecht have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Zulte Waregem 2-4 Anderlecht.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Anderlecht see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 62%, Anderlecht 23% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Zulte Waregem) and 27% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht in 38%; Anderlecht in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 23% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 27% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Anderlecht cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Zulte Waregem 2-4 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.64 xG and Anderlecht 0.99 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Anderlecht outscored their 0.99 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Anderlecht attack 0.76 / defence 1.39, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 52% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 22%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Anderlecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 59%, Anderlecht 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Anderlecht's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.65 PPG, Anderlecht 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.