Union St. Gilloise 4-0 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Standard Liege at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Standard Liege fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise and Standard Liege meet at Stade Joseph Mariën in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Standard Liege (all games): 3W 1D 1L across 5 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Standard Liege have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Union St. Gilloise against 2.00 for Standard Liege. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Union St. Gilloise half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Standard Liege half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 40% versus Standard Liege 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 60% | Standard Liege 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.06 xG and Standard Liege 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.973 / defence 0.893 | Standard Liege attack 0.787 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.620. Data: 5 Union St. Gilloise games / 5 Standard Liege games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 33% | Draw 29% | Standard Liege 37%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Standard Liege 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Standard Liege at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Standard Liege if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 40% | Standard Liege 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 33% | Draw 29% | Standard Liege 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.06 / Standard Liege 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.973 / def 0.893 | Standard Liege attack 0.787 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.620 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Standard Liege xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Standard Liege kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Standard Liege kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Standard Liege?
Union St. Gilloise 4 - 0 Standard Liege.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Standard Liege part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Standard Liege is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 33% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Standard Liege will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Standard Liege?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Standard Liege in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Standard Liege (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 0.97x the league average against Standard Liege's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Standard Liege's attack (0.79x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
33%
2.99
29%
3.43
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.20
1.14
Standard Liege xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
13%
7.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.14 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union St. Gilloise's recent record stands at 3W 0D 2L from 5 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 1L across 5 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Standard Liege, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for Union St. Gilloise against 2.00 for Standard Liege. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Standard Liege in 60%.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Standard Liege in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
Standard Liege
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 games (1.80 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Union St. Gilloise or Standard Liege been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Standard Liege in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 on 28 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Standard Liege — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Union St. Gilloise
2
Draws
1
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Standard Liege?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, Standard Liege have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Standard Liege last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Standard Liege 1-1 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Standard Liege?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Standard Liege tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 40%, Standard Liege 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Union St. Gilloise) and 40% (Standard Liege).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Standard Liege in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Standard Liege?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 60% of Standard Liege's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Standard Liege usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 40% of Standard Liege's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Standard Liege tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Standard Liege in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Standard Liege.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Standard Liege 4-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.06 xG and Standard Liege 1.14 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Standard Liege landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 0.97 / defence 0.89 against Standard Liege attack 0.79 / defence 1.04, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 33% | Draw 29% | Standard Liege 37%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 60%, Standard Liege 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Standard Liege's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 1.80 PPG, Standard Liege 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Union St. Gilloise scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Standard Liege managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.