Union St. Gilloise 1-0 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (62%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Union St. Gilloise face OH Leuven.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise host OH Leuven at Stade Joseph Mariën in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 19 January 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Union St. Gilloise have gone 5W 4D 1L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Union St. Gilloise have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
OH Leuven — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, OH Leuven have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Union St. Gilloise hold a clear advantage across the 6 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 0 for OH Leuven and 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2024, ended Union St. Gilloise 1–1 OH Leuven — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Union St. Gilloise and goals — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
OH Leuven trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 61% versus OH Leuven 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 59% | OH Leuven 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.91 xG and OH Leuven 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.204 / defence 0.918 | OH Leuven attack 0.765 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.102. OH Leuven's attack rating of 0.765 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Data: built from Union St. Gilloise's last 51 games and OH Leuven's last 51.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 62% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 12%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.62 | Draw 3.80 | OH Leuven 8.41. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (62%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union St. Gilloise 50% (last 10 home games) | OH Leuven 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 22 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 19 January 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 62% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.91 / OH Leuven 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.204 / def 0.918 | OH Leuven attack 0.765 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.77
OH Leuven xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven FAQs
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Union St. Gilloise 1 - 0 OH Leuven.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 22) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 62% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 12% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.20x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union St. Gilloise's last 51 games and OH Leuven's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
62%
1.62
26%
3.80
12%
8.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.69
0.77
OH Leuven xG
1.62
62%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
8.41
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
15%
6.78
Win to Nil
28%
3.51
2%
57.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.77 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union St. Gilloise's recent record stands at 33W 19D 9L from 61 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
OH Leuven, meanwhile, have gone 16W 21D 24L across 61 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OH Leuven heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union St. Gilloise have managed 19W 7D 4L from their last 30 home games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OH Leuven's away record stands at 4W 11D 15L across their last 30 away games, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.07 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
Union St. Gilloise (Home) vs OH Leuven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven Form FAQs
What form are Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 33W 19D 9L in their last 61 games (1.93 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 16W 21D 24L in their last 61 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or OH Leuven away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.13 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or OH Leuven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, OH Leuven in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Aug 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won Union St. Gilloise 5-0 OH Leuven.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Union St. Gilloise
3
Draws
0
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, OH Leuven have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Union St. Gilloise 1-1 OH Leuven.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 63%, OH Leuven 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Union St. Gilloise) and 43% (OH Leuven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; OH Leuven in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 53% of OH Leuven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 43% of OH Leuven's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 77% of OH Leuven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out OH Leuven 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat OH Leuven 1-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.91 xG and OH Leuven 0.77 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union St. Gilloise fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.20 / defence 0.92 against OH Leuven attack 0.77 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 62% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 12%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 59%, OH Leuven 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
OH Leuven's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.