Union St. Gilloise 4-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Charleroi at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Charleroi to Stade Joseph Mariën. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 2L across 6 games at Stade Joseph Mariën this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Charleroi — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's away record: 3W 3D 0L from 6 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union St. Gilloise 2.20 PPG, Charleroi 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Union St. Gilloise in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Charleroi in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 54% versus Charleroi 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 69% | Charleroi 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.69 xG and Charleroi 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.220 / defence 1.102 | Charleroi attack 1.134 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.491. Data: 13 Union St. Gilloise games / 13 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 35% | Draw 22% | Charleroi 43%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.86 | Draw 4.55 | Charleroi 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 50% | Charleroi 83% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 35% | Draw 22% | Charleroi 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.69 / Charleroi 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.220 / def 1.102 | Charleroi attack 1.134 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.491 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Charleroi xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Union St. Gilloise 4 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 35% chance of winning, Charleroi a 43% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Charleroi (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
35%
2.83
22%
4.54
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.55
1.86
Charleroi xG
2.83
35%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
16%
6.44
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
5%
18.23
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.86 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union St. Gilloise's recent record stands at 9W 1D 3L from 13 games, a 2.15 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 2L across 13 games — 1.77 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union St. Gilloise on 2.15 PPG, Charleroi on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union St. Gilloise have managed 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 3W 3D 0L across 6 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.92 scored and 1.08 conceded. Charleroi's attacking output running into Union St. Gilloise's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 9W 1D 3L in their last 13 games (2.15 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 6W 5D 2L in their last 13 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Charleroi away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.00 PPG; Charleroi away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Charleroi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
0
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 9, Charleroi have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Charleroi 1-1 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union St. Gilloise at 50%, Charleroi at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Union St. Gilloise and 83% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 83% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 83% of Charleroi's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Charleroi 4-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.69 xG and Charleroi 1.86 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Charleroi landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.22 / defence 1.10 against Charleroi attack 1.13 / defence 1.14, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 35% | Draw 22% | Charleroi 43%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 69%, Charleroi 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charleroi's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.15 PPG, Charleroi 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.