Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 34 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Charleroi to Stade Joseph Marien. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union St. Gilloise's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Stade Joseph Marien this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Marien than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union St. Gilloise 2.00 PPG, Charleroi 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Union St. Gilloise have dominated this rivalry, winning 9 of 10 past contests while Charleroi have managed just 0 wins.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 3–2 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Union St. Gilloise and goals. The home side's 9 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Union St. Gilloise in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Charleroi in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 44% versus Charleroi 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 44% | Charleroi 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.30 xG and Charleroi 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.037 / defence 0.670 | Charleroi attack 1.075 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.362. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.670 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Union St. Gilloise games / 34 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 44% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 28%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Charleroi 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 40% | Charleroi 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 44% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.30 / Charleroi 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.037 / def 0.670 | Charleroi attack 1.075 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Charleroi xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at Stade Joseph Marien.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 44% chance of winning, Charleroi a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi?
Record (10 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 9W | Draws 1 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Charleroi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
44%
2.28
28%
3.57
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.28
0.98
Charleroi xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
8%
13.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.98 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union St. Gilloise's recent record stands at 29W 12D 4L from 45 games, a 2.20 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 18L across 45 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union St. Gilloise have managed 19W 3D 0L from 22 games — 2.73 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.20 PPG overall — Union St. Gilloise are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Charleroi's away record stands at 10W 3D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.36 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 29W 12D 4L in their last 45 games (2.20 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 18W 9D 18L in their last 45 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Charleroi away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.73 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Charleroi in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Union St. Gilloise won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
0
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 9, Charleroi have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Charleroi 2-3 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 32%, Charleroi 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Union St. Gilloise) and 41% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 68% of their matches; Charleroi in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 46% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 41% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.