Union St. Gilloise 0-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Championship Round - 7 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Anderlecht to Stade Joseph Mariën. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union St. Gilloise's home record at Stade Joseph Mariën: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Mariën than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Anderlecht's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Anderlecht's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Union St. Gilloise's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 90% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Union St. Gilloise have won 0, Anderlecht 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Anderlecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Anderlecht in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 70% and Anderlecht 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 67% | Anderlecht 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.43 xG and Anderlecht 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.110 / defence 1.006 | Anderlecht attack 1.340 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.175. Anderlecht have an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Union St. Gilloise games / 63 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 34% | Draw 24% | Anderlecht 41%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Anderlecht 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 90% | Anderlecht 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 7 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 34% | Draw 24% | Anderlecht 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.43 / Anderlecht 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.110 / def 1.006 | Anderlecht attack 1.340 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Anderlecht xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Union St. Gilloise 0 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht is a Championship Round - 7 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 34% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
Record (1 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 0W | Draws 0 | Anderlecht 1W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
34%
2.90
24%
4.14
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.01
1.58
Anderlecht xG
2.90
34%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
7%
14.14
10%
10.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.58 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.12 PPG on a 44W 14D 11L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Anderlecht's form line: 34W 17D 18L from 69 games, 1.72 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Anderlecht.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.18 PPG from 34 outings (23W 5D 6L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 14W 10D 10L from 34 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.68 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Anderlecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 44W 14D 11L in their last 69 games (2.12 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 34W 17D 18L in their last 69 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Anderlecht away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.18 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union St. Gilloise
2
Draws
2
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, Anderlecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 5-1 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 68%, Anderlecht 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Union St. Gilloise and 53% for Anderlecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Anderlecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 62% of Anderlecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 53% of Anderlecht's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union St. Gilloise's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Joseph Mariën, Championship Round - 7, as Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.43 xG and Anderlecht 1.58 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Anderlecht landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.11 / defence 1.01 against Anderlecht attack 1.34 / defence 0.82, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 34% | Draw 24% | Anderlecht 41%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 67%, Anderlecht 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Anderlecht's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.