Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Standard Liege at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Zulte Waregem travel to Maurice Dufrasnestadion to take on Standard Liege. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liege stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Standard Liege have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Standard Liege have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Maurice Dufrasnestadion this season.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Zulte Waregem are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Standard Liege register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Zulte Waregem in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Standard Liege have won 3, Zulte Waregem 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Standard Liege winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Standard Liege in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 45% versus Zulte Waregem 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 48% | Zulte Waregem 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.48 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 1.043 / defence 0.911 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.916 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.362. Data: 34 Standard Liege games / 34 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 45% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 29%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Zulte Waregem 3.45. Standard Liege hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Standard Liege dominate the H2H record, yet Zulte Waregem are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Standard Liege at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zulte Waregem (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Standard Liege offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 60% | Zulte Waregem 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Maurice Dufrasnestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 45% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Standard Liege 1.48 / Zulte Waregem 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 1.043 / def 0.911 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.916 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Zulte Waregem xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
Where is Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 45% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem?
Record (6 meetings): Standard Liege 3W | Draws 2 | Zulte Waregem 1W.
What form are Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Standard Liege's attack rating (1.04) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.87
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.61
1.14
Zulte Waregem xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
7%
15.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.14 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Standard Liege's recent record stands at 16W 10D 14L from 40 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Standard Liege, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 14L across 40 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.45 PPG, Zulte Waregem on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Standard Liege have managed 5W 7D 8L from 20 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 5W 7D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liege are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.52 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Early Season
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 16W 10D 14L in their last 40 games (1.45 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 15W 11D 14L in their last 40 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.10 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2022, when Standard Liege won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Standard Liege's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
2
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Zulte Waregem 0-1 Standard Liege.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem?
Standard Liege have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 50%, Zulte Waregem 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Standard Liege) and 60% (Zulte Waregem).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Standard Liege's games and 70% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Standard Liege's recent games and 60% of Zulte Waregem's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.