Standard Liege vs SK Beveren – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Standard Liege at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Standard Liege welcome SK Beveren to Maurice Dufrasnestadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liege stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Standard Liege at Maurice Dufrasnestadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
SK Beveren — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Standard Liege) versus 1.00 (SK Beveren). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Standard Liege in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
SK Beveren in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 50% versus SK Beveren 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 50% | SK Beveren 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.80 xG and SK Beveren 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.712 / defence 0.893 | SK Beveren attack 0.835 / defence 1.402. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.343. Standard Liege's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 1.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SK Beveren bring a strong defensive rating of 1.402 — this is suppressing Standard Liege's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Standard Liege games / 10 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 56% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 21%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | SK Beveren 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Standard Liege (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Standard Liege as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 50% | SK Beveren 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs SK Beveren | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Maurice Dufrasnestadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 56% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Standard Liege 1.80 / SK Beveren 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.712 / def 0.893 | SK Beveren attack 0.835 / def 1.402 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.00
SK Beveren xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs SK Beveren kick off?
Standard Liege vs SK Beveren is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Friday 6 November 2026 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
Where is Standard Liege vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What competition is Standard Liege vs SK Beveren part of?
Standard Liege vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 56% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Standard Liege and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and SK Beveren?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Standard Liege and SK Beveren in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. SK Beveren (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Standard Liege's attack rating (0.71) and SK Beveren's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.34
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.80
1.00
SK Beveren xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
17%
6.05
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
3%
29.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.00 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs SK Beveren?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Standard Liege come into this having played 42 games, going 16W 10D 16L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SK Beveren sit at 2.33 PPG from 42 outings (31W 5D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Standard Liege — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Standard Liege's home form reads 6W 7D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, SK Beveren have taken 2.05 points per game from 21 outings (13W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Standard Liege are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 2.07 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 16W 10D 16L in their last 42 games (1.38 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 31W 5D 6L in their last 42 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.19 PPG; SK Beveren away: 2.05 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 40%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 48%, SK Beveren 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Standard Liege) and 76% (SK Beveren). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Standard Liege have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 62% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Standard Liege's matches and 76% of SK Beveren's.
Do Standard Liege and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.