Standard Liege 1-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Standard Liege at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Kortrijk travel to Maurice Dufrasnestadion to take on Standard Liege. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026, 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Standard Liege have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Standard Liege have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kortrijk stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Standard Liege are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Standard Liege, 3 for Kortrijk and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2025, ended 1–0 with Standard Liege winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Standard Liege trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Kortrijk trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 49% versus Kortrijk 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 51% | Kortrijk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.68 xG and Kortrijk 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.783 / defence 0.855 | Kortrijk attack 0.539 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.734 / away 1.360. Standard Liege's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kortrijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Standard Liege's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Standard Liege games / 8 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 63% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 14%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Kortrijk 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Standard Liege (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Standard Liege as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 40% | Kortrijk 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Maurice Dufrasnestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 63% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 38% | xG Standard Liege 1.68 / Kortrijk 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.783 / def 0.855 | Kortrijk attack 0.539 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.734 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Kortrijk xG
38%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Kortrijk kick off?
Standard Liege vs Kortrijk kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Standard Liege 1 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Standard Liege vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Kortrijk part of?
Standard Liege vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 63% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Standard Liege and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Kortrijk?
Record (8 meetings): Standard Liege 3W | Draws 2 | Kortrijk 3W.
What form are Standard Liege and Kortrijk in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Standard Liege's attack rating (0.78) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.0%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
63%
1.59
24%
4.24
14%
7.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.30
0.63
Kortrijk xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
7.39
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
53%
1.87
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
34%
2.98
3%
39.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 10.5 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Standard Liege and 0.63 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Standard Liege come into this having played 39 games, going 16W 9D 14L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kortrijk sit at 1.72 PPG from 39 outings (21W 4D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.46 PPG, Kortrijk on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Standard Liege's home form reads 6W 6D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Kortrijk have taken 1.11 points per game from 19 outings (6W 3D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kortrijk's season.
The Goals Picture
Standard Liege are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.49 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 16W 9D 14L in their last 39 games (1.46 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 21W 4D 14L in their last 39 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Kortrijk away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.26 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Standard Liege and Kortrijk runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Standard Liege's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
3
Draws
3
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Kortrijk?
From 9 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, Kortrijk have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Standard Liege 1-1 Kortrijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 42%, Kortrijk 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Standard Liege) and 53% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Standard Liege have failed to score in 37% of games; Kortrijk in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 42% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Standard Liege's recent games and 53% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Standard Liege and Kortrijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege and Kortrijk finished level at 1-1 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.68 xG and Kortrijk 0.63 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.78 / defence 0.85 against Kortrijk attack 0.54 / defence 1.24, drawn from 39/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 63% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 14%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 51%, Kortrijk 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Kortrijk's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.46 PPG, Kortrijk 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.