Standard Liege 1-0 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Standard Liege at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Standard Liege vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kortrijk travel to Stade Maurice Dufrasne to take on Standard Liege in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Friday 10 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Standard Liege have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Standard Liege have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Standard Liege are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kortrijk stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Kortrijk away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
Standard Liege are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Standard Liege, 3 for Kortrijk and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2024, ended Standard Liege 0–1 Kortrijk — a Kortrijk win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Standard Liege trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Kortrijk trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 48% versus Kortrijk 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 45% | Kortrijk 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.64 xG and Kortrijk 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.728 / defence 0.855 | Kortrijk attack 0.904 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.089. Standard Liege's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.64. Kortrijk's defence rating of 1.384 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Standard Liege's projected output up. Data: built from Standard Liege's last 50 games and Kortrijk's last 50.
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 53% | Draw 31% | Kortrijk 16%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 1.88 | Draw 3.27 | Kortrijk 6.17. Standard Liege hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Standard Liege as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Standard Liege offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Standard Liege 40% (last 10 home games) | Kortrijk 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 21 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Friday 10 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 53% | Draw 31% | Kortrijk 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Standard Liege 1.64 / Kortrijk 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.728 / def 0.855 | Kortrijk attack 0.904 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Kortrijk xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Standard Liege vs Kortrijk FAQs
What time does Standard Liege vs Kortrijk kick off?
Standard Liege vs Kortrijk kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 10 January 2025 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Standard Liege 1 - 0 Kortrijk.
Where is Standard Liege vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Kortrijk part of?
Standard Liege vs Kortrijk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 21) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 53% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 16% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Standard Liege and Kortrijk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Standard Liege vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Standard Liege's attack rating (0.73) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Standard Liege's last 50 games and Kortrijk's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
53%
1.88
31%
3.27
16%
6.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.48
0.84
Kortrijk xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
6.17
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
3%
31.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.6 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Standard Liege vs Kortrijk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Standard Liege and 0.84 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Standard Liege come into this having played 58 games, going 14W 22D 22L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Kortrijk sit at 0.95 PPG from 58 outings (15W 10D 33L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.10 PPG, Kortrijk on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Standard Liege's home form reads 11W 11D 7L across their last 29 home games, a 1.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Standard Liege are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kortrijk have taken 0.72 points per game from their last 29 away games (5W 6D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Standard Liege come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Standard Liege are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 0.88 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
Standard Liege (Home) vs Kortrijk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Standard Liege
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Standard Liege vs Kortrijk Form FAQs
What form are Standard Liege and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 14W 22D 22L in their last 58 games (1.10 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 15W 10D 33L in their last 58 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Kortrijk away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.52 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Standard Liege's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
3
Draws
3
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Standard Liege vs Kortrijk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Kortrijk?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Standard Liege have won 3, Kortrijk have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Kortrijk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Standard Liege 1-1 Kortrijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 41%, Kortrijk 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Standard Liege) and 59% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Standard Liege have failed to score in 38% of games; Kortrijk in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Standard Liege vs Kortrijk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Standard Liege and Kortrijk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 38% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Standard Liege and Kortrijk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Standard Liege's recent games and 59% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Kortrijk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 79% of Kortrijk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Standard Liege edge out Kortrijk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat Kortrijk 1-0 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.64 xG and Kortrijk 0.84 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kortrijk landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.73 / defence 0.85 against Kortrijk attack 0.90 / defence 1.38, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 53% | Draw 31% | Kortrijk 16%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 45%, Kortrijk 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Kortrijk's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.10 PPG, Kortrijk 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.