Standard Liege 0-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Standard Liege at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Standard Liege vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kortrijk travel to Stade Maurice Dufrasne to take on Standard Liege in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 January 2024 at 17:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Standard Liege have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Standard Liege have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kortrijk stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Kortrijk away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Standard Liege are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Standard Liege, 1 for Kortrijk and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Standard Liege 1–1 Kortrijk — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Standard Liege trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Kortrijk trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 50% versus Kortrijk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 48% | Kortrijk 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.64 xG and Kortrijk 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.800 / defence 0.787 | Kortrijk attack 0.613 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.614 / away 1.207. Kortrijk's defence rating of 1.268 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Standard Liege's projected output up. Kortrijk's attack rating of 0.613 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.58. Standard Liege have a tight defence (rating 0.787), which is pulling Kortrijk's projected output down. Data: built from Standard Liege's last 53 games and Kortrijk's last 54.
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 60% | Draw 29% | Kortrijk 10%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 1.66 | Draw 3.40 | Kortrijk 9.79. The model has a clear lean to Standard Liege (60%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Standard Liege as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Standard Liege 50% (last 10 home games) | Kortrijk 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 21 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 60% | Draw 29% | Kortrijk 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Standard Liege 1.64 / Kortrijk 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.800 / def 0.787 | Kortrijk attack 0.613 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.614 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Kortrijk xG
38%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Standard Liege vs Kortrijk FAQs
What time does Standard Liege vs Kortrijk kick off?
Standard Liege vs Kortrijk kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Standard Liege 0 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Standard Liege vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Kortrijk part of?
Standard Liege vs Kortrijk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 21) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 60% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 10% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Standard Liege and Kortrijk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Standard Liege vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Standard Liege's attack rating (0.80) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Standard Liege's last 53 games and Kortrijk's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.5%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
60%
1.66
29%
3.40
10%
9.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.22
0.58
Kortrijk xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
9.79
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
34%
2.97
2%
50.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 10.4 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Standard Liege vs Kortrijk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Standard Liege and 0.58 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Standard Liege come into this having played 54 games, going 19W 16D 19L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Kortrijk sit at 0.76 PPG from 54 outings (10W 11D 33L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Standard Liege carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Standard Liege's home form reads 11W 8D 7L across their last 26 home games, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Kortrijk have taken 0.50 points per game from their last 26 away games (3W 4D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Standard Liege come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Standard Liege are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 0.91 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
Standard Liege (Home) vs Kortrijk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Standard Liege
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Standard Liege vs Kortrijk Form FAQs
What form are Standard Liege and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 19W 16D 19L in their last 54 games (1.35 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 10W 11D 33L in their last 54 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Kortrijk away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.58 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Standard Liege's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
3
Draws
3
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Standard Liege vs Kortrijk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Kortrijk?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Standard Liege have won 3, Kortrijk have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Kortrijk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Standard Liege 1-1 Kortrijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 46%, Kortrijk 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Standard Liege) and 65% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Standard Liege have failed to score in 27% of games; Kortrijk in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Standard Liege vs Kortrijk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Standard Liege and Kortrijk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 54% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Standard Liege and Kortrijk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Standard Liege's recent games and 65% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Kortrijk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 85% of Kortrijk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kortrijk defy the odds to beat Standard Liege 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Standard Liege 0-1 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.64 xG and Kortrijk 0.58 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Standard Liege fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.80 / defence 0.79 against Kortrijk attack 0.61 / defence 1.27, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 60% | Draw 29% | Kortrijk 10%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Kortrijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 48%, Kortrijk 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kortrijk's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Standard Liege arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Kortrijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.