Standard Liege 1-2 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 34% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Standard Liege vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Conference League Group - 34 as Standard Liege welcome Antwerp to Maurice Dufrasnestadion. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Standard Liege have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Standard Liege's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Maurice Dufrasnestadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Maurice Dufrasnestadion this season.
Antwerp — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Antwerp have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Standard Liege carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Standard Liege, 4 for Antwerp and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Standard Liege trading profile (73 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Antwerp trading profile (73 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 37% versus Antwerp 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 36% | Antwerp 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 0.86 xG and Antwerp 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.788 / defence 0.910 | Antwerp attack 0.737 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Standard Liege's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Standard Liege games / 60 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 33% | Draw 33% | Antwerp 34%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Antwerp 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Standard Liege's lower xG of 0.86 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Antwerp lead the H2H ledger, but Standard Liege carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Standard Liege (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.75 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 50% | Antwerp 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 34 | Venue: Maurice Dufrasnestadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Apr 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 33% | Draw 33% | Antwerp 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Standard Liege 0.86 / Antwerp 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.788 / def 0.910 | Antwerp attack 0.737 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Antwerp xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Antwerp kick off?
Standard Liege vs Antwerp kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Standard Liege 1 - 2 Antwerp.
Where is Standard Liege vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Antwerp part of?
Standard Liege vs Antwerp is a Conference League Group - 34 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 33% chance of winning, Antwerp a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Standard Liege and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Antwerp?
Record (8 meetings): Standard Liege 2W | Draws 2 | Antwerp 4W.
What form are Standard Liege and Antwerp in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Antwerp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Standard Liege's attack rating (0.79) and Antwerp's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
33%
3.06
33%
2.99
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
1.75
0.89
Antwerp xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 15.4 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Standard Liege and 0.89 for Antwerp, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Standard Liege's recent record stands at 23W 23D 27L from 73 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 23W 21D 29L across 73 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.26 PPG, Antwerp on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Standard Liege have managed 10W 13D 12L from 35 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 8W 13D 14L across 35 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liege are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.25 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 23W 23D 27L in their last 73 games (1.26 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 23W 21D 29L in their last 73 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Antwerp away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.23 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Antwerp in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when Antwerp won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Standard Liege's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
2
Draws
5
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, Antwerp have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-5 Standard Liege.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 46%, Antwerp 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for Standard Liege and 26% for Antwerp.
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Standard Liege have failed to score in 37% of games; Antwerp in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 43% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Standard Liege's recent games and 26% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Antwerp tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 51% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antwerp edge out Standard Liege 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Standard Liege 1-2 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Conference League Group - 34, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 0.86 xG and Antwerp 0.89 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Antwerp outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.79 / defence 0.91 against Antwerp attack 0.74 / defence 0.82, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 33% | Draw 33% | Antwerp 34%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 36%, Antwerp 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Antwerp's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.26 PPG, Antwerp 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.