St. Truiden 1-1 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 50%, yet in-form Lommel United provide a compelling counter-argument — this St. Truiden vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lommel United make the trip to Stayen to face St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Current Form
St. Truiden's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. St. Truiden haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, St. Truiden have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stayen — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Stayen than their overall form suggests.
Lommel United (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lommel United haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lommel United's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lommel United are 0.80 PPG clear of St. Truiden in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (2.20 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lommel United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Lommel United — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 53% versus Lommel United 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 55% | Lommel United 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.66 xG and Lommel United 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.017 / defence 1.029 | Lommel United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.253. Data: 30 St. Truiden games / 0 Lommel United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 50% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 25%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Lommel United 4.00. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lommel United (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 60% | Lommel United 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Lommel United | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stayen • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 50% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG St. Truiden 1.66 / Lommel United 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.017 / def 1.029 | Lommel United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Lommel United xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Lommel United kick off?
St. Truiden vs Lommel United kicked off at 18:45 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Lommel United?
St. Truiden 1 - 1 Lommel United.
Where is St. Truiden vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Lommel United part of?
St. Truiden vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 50% chance of winning, Lommel United a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both St. Truiden and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Lommel United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and Lommel United in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from St. Truiden's attack rating (1.02) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lommel United's attack (0.85x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
50%
1.99
25%
4.08
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.75
1.10
Lommel United xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
5%
20.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.10 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
St. Truiden come into this having played 38 games, going 21W 4D 13L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. St. Truiden haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Lommel United sit at 1.82 PPG from 38 outings (20W 9D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. Lommel United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for St. Truiden against 1.82 for Lommel United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
St. Truiden's home form reads 12W 2D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Lommel United have taken 1.74 points per game from 19 outings (9W 6D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
St. Truiden are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.92 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Pre-Season
Lommel United
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Lommel United in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 21W 4D 13L in their last 38 games (1.76 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 20W 9D 9L in their last 38 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Lommel United away?
St. Truiden's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 2.00 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since August 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
St. Truiden
1
Draws
0
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Lommel United?
From 1 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 0, Lommel United have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when St. Truiden 1-1 Lommel United.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 53%, Lommel United 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for St. Truiden and 63% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of St. Truiden's games and 63% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of St. Truiden's matches and 63% of Lommel United's.
Do St. Truiden and Lommel United tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden and Lommel United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stayen, Regular Season - 1, as St. Truiden and Lommel United drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.66 xG and Lommel United 1.10 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against Lommel United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 50% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 25%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 55%, Lommel United 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Lommel United's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.76 PPG, Lommel United 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.