St. Truiden 4-2 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 50% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kortrijk travel to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium to take on St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 17:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, St. Truiden have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
St. Truiden's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — St. Truiden are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kortrijk — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kortrijk away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St. Truiden 0.70 PPG, Kortrijk 0.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
St. Truiden hold a clear advantage across the 7 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for Kortrijk and 2 draws.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2024, ended St. Truiden 1–1 Kortrijk — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives St. Truiden an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 65% versus Kortrijk 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 51% | Kortrijk 55%). Note also that Kortrijk surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while St. Truiden recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.77 xG and Kortrijk 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.994 / defence 1.160 | Kortrijk attack 0.837 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.136. Kortrijk's defence rating of 1.238 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing St. Truiden's projected output up. Data: built from St. Truiden's last 57 games and Kortrijk's last 57.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 50% | Draw 30% | Kortrijk 20%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.00 | Draw 3.38 | Kortrijk 4.89. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (St. Truiden 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (St. Truiden's last 10 home games and Kortrijk's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: St. Truiden 80% (last 10 home games) | Kortrijk 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 50% | Draw 30% | Kortrijk 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG St. Truiden 1.77 / Kortrijk 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.994 / def 1.160 | Kortrijk attack 0.837 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Kortrijk xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St. Truiden vs Kortrijk FAQs
What time does St. Truiden vs Kortrijk kick off?
St. Truiden vs Kortrijk kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
St. Truiden 4 - 2 Kortrijk.
Where is St. Truiden vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Kortrijk part of?
St. Truiden vs Kortrijk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 50% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both St. Truiden and Kortrijk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will St. Truiden vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St. Truiden's attack rating (0.99) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from St. Truiden's last 57 games and Kortrijk's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
50%
2.00
30%
3.38
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.87
1.10
Kortrijk xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
3%
28.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St. Truiden vs Kortrijk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.10 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 16W 24D 25L from 65 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 38L across 65 games — 0.88 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.11 PPG, Kortrijk on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 12W 13D 7L from their last 32 home games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — St. Truiden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 5W 7D 20L across their last 32 away games, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 0.86 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
St. Truiden (Home) vs Kortrijk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St. Truiden
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ St. Truiden vs Kortrijk Form FAQs
What form are St. Truiden and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 16W 24D 25L in their last 65 games (1.11 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 15W 12D 38L in their last 65 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Kortrijk away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.53 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Apr 2025, when Kortrijk won St. Truiden 0-3 Kortrijk.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St. Truiden
3
Draws
2
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ St. Truiden vs Kortrijk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Kortrijk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St. Truiden have won 5, Kortrijk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Kortrijk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2025: Kortrijk 2-2 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Kortrijk?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 62%, Kortrijk 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (St. Truiden) and 56% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St. Truiden vs Kortrijk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St. Truiden and Kortrijk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 41% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St. Truiden and Kortrijk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of St. Truiden's recent games and 56% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Kortrijk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 78% of Kortrijk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Kortrijk 4-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.77 xG and Kortrijk 1.10 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kortrijk outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.99 / defence 1.16 against Kortrijk attack 0.84 / defence 1.24, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 50% | Draw 30% | Kortrijk 20%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 51%, Kortrijk 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.11 PPG, Kortrijk 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.