St. Truiden 2-1 Gent – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gent at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Gent fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St. Truiden and Gent meet at Stayen in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 July 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 0.99 xG and Gent 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Gent attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 1.730. Data: 0 St. Truiden games / 0 Gent games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 19% | Draw 31% | Gent 50%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 5.26 | Draw 3.23 | Gent 2.00. Gent hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gent are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gent if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stayen • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 19% | Draw 31% | Gent 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG St. Truiden 0.99 / Gent 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Gent attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.010 / away 1.730 • Poisson stance: Gent (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Gent xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Gent kick off?
St. Truiden vs Gent kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Gent?
St. Truiden 2 - 1 Gent.
Where is St. Truiden vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Gent part of?
St. Truiden vs Gent is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 19% chance of winning, Gent a 50% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both St. Truiden and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Gent?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and Gent in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Gent's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Gent's attack (0.85x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
19%
5.39
31%
3.23
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.68
1.69
Gent xG
5.39
19%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
3%
29.21
19%
5.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.69 for Gent, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Pre-Season
Gent
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 4-1 on 1 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gent — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St. Truiden
4
Draws
3
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 3, Gent have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when St. Truiden 1-1 Gent.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as St. Truiden defy the odds to beat Gent 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Gent 2-1 at Stayen, Regular Season - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 0.99 xG and Gent 1.69 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Gent attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 19% | Draw 31% | Gent 50%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a St. Truiden win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.