St. Truiden 1-2 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St. Truiden host Genk at Daio Wasabi Stayen in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 September 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
St. Truiden — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genk stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Genk have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — St. Truiden at 1.80 PPG versus Genk's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. St. Truiden register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Genk in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, St. Truiden have won 1, Genk 2, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Genk in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St. Truiden 68% and Genk 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 59% | Genk 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.33 xG and Genk 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.975 / defence 1.076 | Genk attack 1.025 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.128. Data: 38 St. Truiden games / 38 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 37% | Draw 31% | Genk 33%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Genk 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 60% | Genk 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 37% | Draw 31% | Genk 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG St. Truiden 1.33 / Genk 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.975 / def 1.076 | Genk attack 1.025 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Genk xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Genk kick off?
St. Truiden vs Genk kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Genk?
St. Truiden 1 - 2 Genk.
Where is St. Truiden vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Genk part of?
St. Truiden vs Genk is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 37% chance of winning, Genk a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both St. Truiden and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Genk?
Record (8 meetings): St. Truiden 1W | Draws 5 | Genk 2W.
What form are St. Truiden and Genk in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Genk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.97x the league average against Genk's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
37%
2.72
31%
3.26
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.58
1.24
Genk xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
9%
11.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.24 for Genk, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden come into this having played 44 games, going 14W 13D 17L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.86 PPG from 44 outings (25W 7D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
St. Truiden's home form reads 10W 7D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — St. Truiden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.59 points per game from 22 outings (10W 5D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.61 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Genk in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 14W 13D 17L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Genk have gone 25W 7D 12L in their last 44 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Genk away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.68 PPG; Genk away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genk go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Genk specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
St. Truiden
5
Draws
4
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 1, Genk have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Genk 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — St. Truiden at 68%, Genk at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for St. Truiden and 59% for Genk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of St. Truiden's games and 68% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of St. Truiden's matches and 59% of Genk's.
Do St. Truiden and Genk tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Genk in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genk defy the odds to beat St. Truiden 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat St. Truiden 1-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Regular Season - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.33 xG and Genk 1.24 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against Genk attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 37% | Draw 31% | Genk 33%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Genk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 59%, Genk 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.