St. Truiden 1-2 Club Brugge KV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Club Brugge KV at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Club Brugge KV make the trip to Stadion Stayen to face St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
St. Truiden (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Stadion Stayen: 1W 2D 3L from 6 Jupiler Pro League appearances (0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Club Brugge KV's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Club Brugge KV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Club Brugge KV have posted 3W 2D 1L from 6 away outings — 1.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Club Brugge KV are 0.80 PPG clear of St. Truiden in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Club Brugge KV half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St. Truiden 67% and Club Brugge KV 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 58% | Club Brugge KV 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.08 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.831 / defence 1.347 | Club Brugge KV attack 0.856 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.464. Data: 12 St. Truiden games / 12 Club Brugge KV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 24% | Draw 24% | Club Brugge KV 52%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Club Brugge KV 1.92. Club Brugge KV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Club Brugge KV are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Club Brugge KV if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 83% | Club Brugge KV 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Stayen • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 24% | Draw 24% | Club Brugge KV 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG St. Truiden 1.08 / Club Brugge KV 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.831 / def 1.347 | Club Brugge KV attack 0.856 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge KV (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Club Brugge KV xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV kick off?
St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stadion Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV?
St. Truiden 1 - 2 Club Brugge KV.
Where is St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV part of?
St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 24% chance of winning, Club Brugge KV a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge KV the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Club Brugge KV (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from St. Truiden's attack rating (0.83) and Club Brugge KV's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Club Brugge KV's attack (0.86x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge KV Win
24%
4.11
24%
4.15
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.77
1.69
Club Brugge KV xG
4.11
24%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
4%
22.24
17%
5.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.69 for Club Brugge KV, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
St. Truiden come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 3D 5L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Club Brugge KV sit at 1.92 PPG from 12 outings (6W 5D 1L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Club Brugge KV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Club Brugge KV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
St. Truiden's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.25 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Club Brugge KV have taken 1.83 points per game from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Club Brugge KV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
St. Truiden are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge KV are on 1.75 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Club Brugge KV in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Club Brugge KV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 games (1.25 PPG), while Club Brugge KV have gone 6W 5D 1L in their last 12 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Club Brugge KV away?
Club Brugge KV's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 0.83 PPG; Club Brugge KV away: 1.83 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Club Brugge KV been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Club Brugge KV in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Club Brugge KV have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Club Brugge KV won 7-0 on 23 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Club Brugge KV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Club Brugge KV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, Club Brugge KV have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Club Brugge KV 2-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV?
Club Brugge KV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St. Truiden see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for St. Truiden, 50% for Club Brugge KV — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (St. Truiden) and 33% (Club Brugge KV).
On the defensive side: Club Brugge KV in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Club Brugge KV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Club Brugge KV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of St. Truiden's games and 50% of Club Brugge KV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of St. Truiden's recent games and 33% of Club Brugge KV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Club Brugge KV in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Club Brugge KV edge out St. Truiden 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge KV beat St. Truiden 1-2 at Stadion Stayen, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.08 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.69 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.83 / defence 1.35 against Club Brugge KV attack 0.86 / defence 1.00, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 24% | Draw 24% | Club Brugge KV 52%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 58%, Club Brugge KV 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.