Seraing United 1-2 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Seraing United host Union St. Gilloise at Stade du Pairay in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Seraing United — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Seraing United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Seraing United's home record at Stade du Pairay: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pairay this season.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Union St. Gilloise's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Seraing United's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Seraing United have won 0, Union St. Gilloise 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2022, ended 0–4 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Seraing United in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Union St. Gilloise in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seraing United 40% versus Union St. Gilloise 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seraing United 52% | Union St. Gilloise 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seraing United 0.78 xG and Union St. Gilloise 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seraing United attack 0.514 / defence 1.053 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.447 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.482. Seraing United's attack strength of 0.514 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.447 — the away xG of 2.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Seraing United games / 48 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seraing United 11% | Draw 18% | Union St. Gilloise 71%. Fair-value odds: Seraing United 9.09 | Draw 5.56 | Union St. Gilloise 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Seraing United 20% | Union St. Gilloise 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade du Pairay • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seraing United 11% | Draw 18% | Union St. Gilloise 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 49% | xG Seraing United 0.78 / Union St. Gilloise 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: Seraing United attack 0.514 / def 1.053 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.447 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.482 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Seraing United xG
Expected Goals
2.26
Union St. Gilloise xG
49%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Stade du Pairay.
What was the final score in Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise?
Seraing United 1 - 2 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pairay.
What competition is Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Seraing United a 11% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 71% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (2 meetings): Seraing United 0W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 2W.
What form are Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise in?
Seraing United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Seraing United's attack rating (0.51) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Seraing United's defence, projects 2.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
11%
8.75
18%
5.62
71%
1.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Seraing United xG
Total xG
3.04
2.26
Union St. Gilloise xG
8.75
11%
Home win
5.62
18%
Draw
1.41
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
10%
9.56
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
1%
83.67
32%
3.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 10.8 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Seraing United and 2.26 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Seraing United's recent record stands at 12W 7D 31L from 50 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Seraing United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 32W 8D 10L across 50 games — 2.08 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 1.22 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Seraing United heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Seraing United have managed 5W 5D 14L from 24 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 17W 4D 3L across 24 trips, a 2.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Seraing United are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.08 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seraing United
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Seraing United have gone 12W 7D 31L in their last 50 games (0.86 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 32W 8D 10L in their last 50 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seraing United at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seraing United at home: 0.83 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Seraing United or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Seraing United have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Union St. Gilloise go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2022, when Union St. Gilloise won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Seraing United's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Seraing United
0
Draws
4
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise?
From 4 meetings on record, Seraing United have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2023, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Seraing United.
Who has won more matches between Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Seraing United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seraing United 29%, Union St. Gilloise 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Seraing United) and 62% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 42%; Seraing United have failed to score in 62% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seraing United home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seraing United play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Seraing United's recent matches and 50% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Seraing United's recent games and 62% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Seraing United have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Seraing United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Seraing United 1-2 at Stade du Pairay, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seraing United 0.78 xG and Union St. Gilloise 2.26 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seraing United attack 0.51 / defence 1.05 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.45 / defence 0.94, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seraing United 11% | Draw 18% | Union St. Gilloise 71%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seraing United 52%, Union St. Gilloise 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seraing United's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.