Oostende 0-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oostende vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees St. Truiden travel to Diaz Arena to take on Oostende. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 August 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oostende stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Oostende have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oostende's home record at Diaz Arena: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St. Truiden — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Oostende have won 0, St. Truiden 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Oostende in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oostende 47% versus St. Truiden 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oostende 55% | St. Truiden 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oostende 1.09 xG and St. Truiden 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oostende attack 0.958 / defence 1.234 | St. Truiden attack 0.824 / defence 0.742. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.270. St. Truiden's defence strength of 0.742 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Oostende games / 38 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oostende 31% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 41%. Fair-value odds: Oostende 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | St. Truiden 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Oostende 60% | St. Truiden 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oostende vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Diaz Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oostende 31% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Oostende 1.09 / St. Truiden 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Oostende attack 0.958 / def 1.234 | St. Truiden attack 0.824 / def 0.742 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Oostende xG
Expected Goals
1.29
St. Truiden xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oostende vs St. Truiden kick off?
Oostende vs St. Truiden kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Diaz Arena.
What was the final score in Oostende vs St. Truiden?
Oostende 0 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Oostende vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Diaz Arena.
What competition is Oostende vs St. Truiden part of?
Oostende vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Oostende vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Oostende a 31% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oostende vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Oostende and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Oostende vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and St. Truiden?
Record (2 meetings): Oostende 0W | Draws 2 | St. Truiden 0W.
What form are Oostende and St. Truiden in?
Oostende (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Oostende's attack rating (0.96) and St. Truiden's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Oostende's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
31%
3.18
28%
3.62
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Oostende xG
Total xG
2.39
1.29
St. Truiden xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oostende vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Oostende and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Oostende and 1.29 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Oostende vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oostende come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 7D 19L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Oostende, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, St. Truiden sit at 1.42 PPG from 38 outings (15W 9D 14L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oostende on 1.13 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Oostende's home form reads 6W 3D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, St. Truiden have taken 1.53 points per game from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Oostende are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.16 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oostende
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oostende and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Oostende have gone 12W 7D 19L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oostende at home or St. Truiden away?
St. Truiden's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oostende at home: 1.11 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Oostende or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oostende have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
St. Truiden have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2023, when St. Truiden won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oostende's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Oostende
2
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and St. Truiden?
From 4 meetings on record, Oostende have won 0, St. Truiden have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oostende and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when St. Truiden 5-0 Oostende.
Who has won more matches between Oostende and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oostende are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oostende 63%, St. Truiden 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Oostende) and 26% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 47%; Oostende have failed to score in 26% of games; St. Truiden in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oostende home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oostende play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Oostende's recent matches and 37% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oostende vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 74% of Oostende's recent games and 26% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oostende and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Oostende have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out Oostende 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Oostende 0-1 at Diaz Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oostende 1.09 xG and St. Truiden 1.29 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Oostende fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oostende attack 0.96 / defence 1.23 against St. Truiden attack 0.82 / defence 0.74, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oostende 31% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 41%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oostende 55%, St. Truiden 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oostende's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St. Truiden's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oostende 1.13 PPG, St. Truiden 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. Oostende (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.