OH Leuven 1-1 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as OH Leuven take on Zulte Waregem.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem meet at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 July 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 0.71 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 1.023. Data: 0 OH Leuven games / 0 Zulte Waregem games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 21% | Draw 41% | Zulte Waregem 38%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 4.76 | Draw 2.44 | Zulte Waregem 2.63. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 21% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.71 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 21% | Draw 41% | Zulte Waregem 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 36% | xG OH Leuven 0.71 / Zulte Waregem 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Zulte Waregem xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem?
OH Leuven 1 - 1 Zulte Waregem.
Where is OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem part of?
OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 21% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 38% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from OH Leuven's attack rating (0.85) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (0.85x) against OH Leuven's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
21%
4.70
41%
2.43
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
1.71
1.00
Zulte Waregem xG
4.70
21%
Home win
2.43
41%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.00 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Pre-Season
Zulte Waregem
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OH Leuven won 2-5 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
OH Leuven
3
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 2, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when OH Leuven 1-1 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem?
OH Leuven have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem finished level at 1-1 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 0.71 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.00 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 21% | Draw 41% | Zulte Waregem 38%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.