OH Leuven 1-1 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as OH Leuven take on Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as OH Leuven welcome Union St. Gilloise to King Power at Den Dreef Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, OH Leuven have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, OH Leuven have posted 5W 3D 2L at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — OH Leuven are significantly better at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: OH Leuven 1.00 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Union St. Gilloise have the better historical record — 5 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for OH Leuven.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Union St. Gilloise have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
OH Leuven in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 57% versus Union St. Gilloise 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 46% | Union St. Gilloise 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.00 xG and Union St. Gilloise 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.808 / defence 0.939 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.917 / defence 0.739. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 0.996. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.739 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 OH Leuven games / 44 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 34% | Draw 40% | Union St. Gilloise 26%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.94 | Draw 2.50 | Union St. Gilloise 3.85. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.86 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: OH Leuven 70% | Union St. Gilloise 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 34% | Draw 40% | Union St. Gilloise 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG OH Leuven 1.00 / Union St. Gilloise 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.808 / def 0.939 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.917 / def 0.739 | league avg home 1.680 / away 0.996 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Union St. Gilloise xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
OH Leuven 1 - 1 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 34% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 26% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (6 meetings): OH Leuven 1W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 5W.
What form are OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OH Leuven's attack rating (0.81) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus OH Leuven's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.94
40%
2.52
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
1.86
0.86
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.94
34%
Home win
2.52
40%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for OH Leuven and 0.86 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
OH Leuven's recent record stands at 14W 18D 22L from 54 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 29W 16D 9L across 54 games — 1.91 PPG, with D-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OH Leuven heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, OH Leuven have managed 10W 7D 9L from 26 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 11W 10D 5L across 26 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
OH Leuven are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.80 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 14W 18D 22L in their last 54 games (1.11 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 29W 16D 9L in their last 54 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.42 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.65 PPG.
Have OH Leuven or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
OH Leuven have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OH Leuven's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
OH Leuven
2
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when OH Leuven 0-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 58%, Union St. Gilloise 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (OH Leuven) and 50% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of OH Leuven's games and 58% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of OH Leuven's recent games and 50% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise finished level at 1-1 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.00 xG and Union St. Gilloise 0.86 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.81 / defence 0.94 against Union St. Gilloise attack 0.92 / defence 0.74, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 34% | Draw 40% | Union St. Gilloise 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 46%, Union St. Gilloise 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.