OH Leuven 3-2 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this OH Leuven vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 30 as OH Leuven welcome St. Truiden to King Power at Den Dreef Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, OH Leuven stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
OH Leuven at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — OH Leuven are significantly better at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (OH Leuven) versus 1.30 (St. Truiden). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for OH Leuven, 1 for St. Truiden and 4 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with St. Truiden winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
OH Leuven in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 51% versus St. Truiden 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 39% | St. Truiden 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.45 xG and St. Truiden 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.808 / defence 0.711 | St. Truiden attack 0.971 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.092. St. Truiden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing OH Leuven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. OH Leuven's defence rating of 0.711 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 OH Leuven games / 59 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 51% | Draw 31% | St. Truiden 17%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 1.96 | Draw 3.23 | St. Truiden 5.88. OH Leuven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OH Leuven are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OH Leuven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: OH Leuven 30% | St. Truiden 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 51% | Draw 31% | St. Truiden 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG OH Leuven 1.45 / St. Truiden 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.808 / def 0.711 | St. Truiden attack 0.971 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
0.75
St. Truiden xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs St. Truiden kick off?
OH Leuven vs St. Truiden kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
OH Leuven 3 - 2 St. Truiden.
Where is OH Leuven vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs St. Truiden part of?
OH Leuven vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 51% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both OH Leuven and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and St. Truiden?
Record (7 meetings): OH Leuven 2W | Draws 4 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are OH Leuven and St. Truiden in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
OH Leuven's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus OH Leuven's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
51%
1.95
31%
3.18
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.20
0.75
St. Truiden xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
4%
24.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.1 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for OH Leuven and 0.75 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OH Leuven's recent record stands at 18W 24D 27L from 69 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 20W 24D 25L across 69 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: OH Leuven on 1.13 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, OH Leuven have managed 14W 11D 9L from 34 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — OH Leuven are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 5W 11D 18L across 34 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St. Truiden's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OH Leuven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OH Leuven are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.28 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 62%.
Last 69 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Current Season
St. Truiden
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 18W 24D 27L in their last 69 games (1.13 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 20W 24D 25L in their last 69 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or St. Truiden away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.56 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when OH Leuven won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OH Leuven's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
4
Draws
3
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 3, St. Truiden have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when St. Truiden 1-0 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 50%, St. Truiden 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (OH Leuven) and 59% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: OH Leuven keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; St. Truiden in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of OH Leuven's games and 65% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OH Leuven vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of OH Leuven's recent games and 59% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and St. Truiden tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OH Leuven edge out St. Truiden 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat St. Truiden 3-2 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.45 xG and St. Truiden 0.75 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. OH Leuven beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St. Truiden outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.81 / defence 0.71 against St. Truiden attack 0.97 / defence 1.24, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 51% | Draw 31% | St. Truiden 17%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 39%, St. Truiden 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.13 PPG, St. Truiden 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.