OH Leuven 4-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this OH Leuven vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as OH Leuven welcome St. Truiden to King Power at Den Dreef Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, OH Leuven stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — OH Leuven are significantly better at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (OH Leuven) versus 1.30 (St. Truiden). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for OH Leuven, 0 for St. Truiden and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
OH Leuven in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 66% versus St. Truiden 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 59% | St. Truiden 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.41 xG and St. Truiden 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.973 / defence 1.018 | St. Truiden attack 1.107 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.300. Data: 44 OH Leuven games / 44 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 35% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 37%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | St. Truiden 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OH Leuven 80% | St. Truiden 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 35% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG OH Leuven 1.41 / St. Truiden 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.973 / def 1.018 | St. Truiden attack 1.107 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.47
St. Truiden xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs St. Truiden kick off?
OH Leuven vs St. Truiden kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
OH Leuven 4 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is OH Leuven vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs St. Truiden part of?
OH Leuven vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 35% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both OH Leuven and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and St. Truiden?
Record (2 meetings): OH Leuven 0W | Draws 2 | St. Truiden 0W.
What form are OH Leuven and St. Truiden in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
OH Leuven's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus OH Leuven's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
35%
2.87
28%
3.55
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.88
1.47
St. Truiden xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
8%
12.44
9%
11.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.47 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OH Leuven's recent record stands at 15W 12D 17L from 44 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 17L across 44 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: OH Leuven on 1.30 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, OH Leuven have managed 8W 7D 7L from 22 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 6W 9D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
OH Leuven are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.09 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 15W 12D 17L in their last 44 games (1.30 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 14W 13D 17L in their last 44 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or St. Truiden away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.41 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when OH Leuven won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OH Leuven's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
4
Draws
3
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 3, St. Truiden have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when St. Truiden 1-0 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
St. Truiden see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 64%, St. Truiden 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (OH Leuven) and 41% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of OH Leuven's games and 54% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OH Leuven vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of OH Leuven's recent games and 41% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and St. Truiden tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant OH Leuven run riot with a 4-0 hammering of St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat St. Truiden 4-0 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.41 xG and St. Truiden 1.47 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. OH Leuven beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St. Truiden landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.97 / defence 1.02 against St. Truiden attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 35% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 37%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual OH Leuven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 59%, St. Truiden 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
St. Truiden's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.30 PPG, St. Truiden 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.