OH Leuven 0-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OH Leuven vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genk make the trip to King Power at Den Dreef Stadion to face OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
OH Leuven (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Genk have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Genk are 1.10 PPG clear of OH Leuven in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (2.80 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Genk — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — OH Leuven 64% and Genk 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 64% | Genk 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.30 xG and Genk 2.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.947 / defence 1.125 | Genk attack 1.344 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.506. Genk have an above-average attack strength of 1.344 — the away xG of 2.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 OH Leuven games / 45 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 21% | Draw 20% | Genk 59%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 4.76 | Draw 5.00 | Genk 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Genk (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 2.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: OH Leuven 50% | Genk 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 21% | Draw 20% | Genk 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG OH Leuven 1.30 / Genk 2.28 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.947 / def 1.125 | Genk attack 1.344 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.506 • Poisson stance: Genk (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
2.28
Genk xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Genk kick off?
OH Leuven vs Genk kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Genk?
OH Leuven 0 - 1 Genk.
Where is OH Leuven vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Genk part of?
OH Leuven vs Genk is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 21% chance of winning, Genk a 59% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both OH Leuven and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Genk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OH Leuven and Genk in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Genk (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
OH Leuven's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Genk's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.34x) against OH Leuven's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 2.28.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
21%
4.75
20%
5.09
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
0 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
3.58
2.28
Genk xG
4.75
21%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
10%
9.76
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
2%
46.33
16%
6.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for OH Leuven and 2.28 for Genk, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Genk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
OH Leuven come into this having played 45 games, going 16W 13D 16L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.76 PPG from 45 outings (24W 7D 14L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for OH Leuven against 1.76 for Genk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
OH Leuven's home form reads 10W 4D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.27 points per game from 22 outings (8W 4D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Genk's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OH Leuven are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.00 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Genk in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 16W 13D 16L in their last 45 games (1.36 PPG), while Genk have gone 24W 7D 14L in their last 45 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Genk away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.55 PPG; Genk away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OH Leuven
1
Draws
7
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 2, Genk have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when OH Leuven 0-2 Genk.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 59%, Genk 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for OH Leuven and 64% for Genk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OH Leuven have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of OH Leuven's games and 59% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OH Leuven vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of OH Leuven's matches and 64% of Genk's.
Do OH Leuven and Genk tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Genk in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out OH Leuven 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat OH Leuven 0-1 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.30 xG and Genk 2.28 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. OH Leuven fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Genk landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against Genk attack 1.34 / defence 0.94, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 21% | Draw 20% | Genk 59%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 64%, Genk 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Genk's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.36 PPG, Genk 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Genk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.