OH Leuven 2-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 42%, yet in-form Charleroi provide a compelling counter-argument — this OH Leuven vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OH Leuven and Charleroi meet at Den Dreef in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 July 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
OH Leuven (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. OH Leuven haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
OH Leuven's home record at Den Dreef: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — OH Leuven are significantly better at Den Dreef than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Charleroi haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Charleroi arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for OH Leuven, 1 for Charleroi and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Charleroi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 48% versus Charleroi 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (OH Leuven 30% | Charleroi 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.46 xG and Charleroi 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.982 / defence 0.937 | Charleroi attack 1.039 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.117. Data: 30 OH Leuven games / 30 Charleroi games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 42% | Draw 34% | Charleroi 24%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Charleroi 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, OH Leuven are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charleroi (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OH Leuven if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: OH Leuven 50% | Charleroi 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Den Dreef • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Jul 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 42% | Draw 34% | Charleroi 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG OH Leuven 1.46 / Charleroi 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.982 / def 0.937 | Charleroi attack 1.039 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Charleroi xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Charleroi kick off?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 27 July 2025 at Den Dreef.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
OH Leuven 2 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is OH Leuven vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Den Dreef.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Charleroi part of?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 42% chance of winning, Charleroi a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both OH Leuven and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
Record (5 meetings): OH Leuven 2W | Draws 2 | Charleroi 1W.
What form are OH Leuven and Charleroi in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. OH Leuven (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates OH Leuven's attack at 0.98x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.04x) against OH Leuven's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
42%
2.39
34%
2.97
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.55
1.09
Charleroi xG
2.39
42%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
6%
17.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.09 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OH Leuven come into this having played 40 games, going 9W 18D 13L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. OH Leuven haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Charleroi sit at 1.52 PPG from 40 outings (17W 10D 13L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. Charleroi haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for OH Leuven against 1.52 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OH Leuven's home form reads 7W 10D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — OH Leuven are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Charleroi have taken 1.05 points per game from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Charleroi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OH Leuven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
OH Leuven are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.42 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Pre-Season
Charleroi
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Charleroi in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 9W 18D 13L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 17W 10D 13L in their last 40 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Charleroi away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.55 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
4
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 3, Charleroi have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 50%, Charleroi 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for OH Leuven and 45% for Charleroi.
On the defensive side: OH Leuven keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; OH Leuven have failed to score in 30% of games; Charleroi in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 55% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OH Leuven vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of OH Leuven's recent games and 45% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Charleroi tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OH Leuven and Charleroi share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven and Charleroi finished level at 2-2 at Den Dreef, Regular Season - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.46 xG and Charleroi 1.09 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Charleroi outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Charleroi attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 42% | Draw 34% | Charleroi 24%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 30%, Charleroi 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.12 PPG, Charleroi 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OH Leuven (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.