Kortrijk 1-3 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kortrijk at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zulte Waregem make the trip to Guldensporenstadion to face Kortrijk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Kortrijk (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk's home record at Guldensporenstadion: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Zulte Waregem have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Kortrijk. A 0.80 PPG lead over Zulte Waregem (1.00 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Kortrijk, 0 for Zulte Waregem and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 5–0 with Kortrijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Zulte Waregem half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 53% versus Zulte Waregem 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 44% | Zulte Waregem 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.20 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.832 / defence 1.084 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.642 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.489. Data: 45 Kortrijk games / 45 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 40% | Draw 29% | Zulte Waregem 32%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Zulte Waregem 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kortrijk at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kortrijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 50% | Zulte Waregem 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 40% | Draw 29% | Zulte Waregem 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Kortrijk 1.20 / Zulte Waregem 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.832 / def 1.084 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.642 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.489 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Zulte Waregem xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem?
Kortrijk 1 - 3 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 40% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kortrijk and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Zulte Waregem?
Record (2 meetings): Kortrijk 1W | Draws 1 | Zulte Waregem 0W.
What form are Kortrijk and Zulte Waregem in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kortrijk's attack rating (0.83) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (0.64x) against Kortrijk's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.48
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.24
1.04
Zulte Waregem xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
10%
10.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.04 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 12W 11D 22L from 45 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 26L across 45 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Kortrijk against 0.82 for Zulte Waregem. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 6W 5D 11L from 22 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 3W 6D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kortrijk are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.13 scored and 2.09 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 12W 11D 22L in their last 45 games (1.04 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 9W 10D 26L in their last 45 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Kortrijk's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.05 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kortrijk won 5-0 on 19 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kortrijk have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Kortrijk
2
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Zulte Waregem?
From 4 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 1, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2023, when Zulte Waregem 3-3 Kortrijk.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 50%, Zulte Waregem 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Kortrijk) and 50% (Zulte Waregem).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk have failed to score in 32% of games; Zulte Waregem in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Zulte Waregem?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 54% of Zulte Waregem's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Kortrijk's recent games and 50% of Zulte Waregem's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zulte Waregem cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Kortrijk 1-3 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.20 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.04 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zulte Waregem outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.64 / defence 1.01, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 40% | Draw 29% | Zulte Waregem 32%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Zulte Waregem win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 44%, Zulte Waregem 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.04 PPG, Zulte Waregem 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.