Kortrijk 0-1 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 39%, yet in-form Gent provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kortrijk vs Gent fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Gent travel to Guldensporenstadion to take on Kortrijk. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 July 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Kortrijk have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Kortrijk haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gent stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Gent haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Gent have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Gent's 2.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Kortrijk's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Gent have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Kortrijk.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Gent winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Gent have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Kortrijk trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Gent trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 42% versus Gent 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 53% | Gent 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.29 xG and Gent 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.952 / defence 1.093 | Gent attack 1.052 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 0.934. Data: 30 Kortrijk games / 30 Gent games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 39% | Draw 33% | Gent 28%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Gent 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kortrijk as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gent (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kortrijk 50% | Gent 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 39% | Draw 33% | Gent 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Kortrijk 1.29 / Gent 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.952 / def 1.093 | Gent attack 1.052 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.294 / away 0.934 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Gent xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Gent kick off?
Kortrijk vs Gent kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Gent?
Kortrijk 0 - 1 Gent.
Where is Kortrijk vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Gent part of?
Kortrijk vs Gent is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 39% chance of winning, Gent a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kortrijk and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Gent?
Record (6 meetings): Kortrijk 1W | Draws 1 | Gent 4W.
What form are Kortrijk and Gent in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Kortrijk (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kortrijk's attack rating (0.95) and Gent's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gent's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
39%
2.59
33%
3.00
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.36
1.07
Gent xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
8%
12.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.07 for Gent, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Kortrijk have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 10W 7D 21L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. Kortrijk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Gent's form line: 18W 11D 9L from 38 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. Gent haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Gent are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kortrijk.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kortrijk have posted 1.11 PPG from 19 outings (6W 3D 10L).
On the road, Gent have gone 8W 5D 6L from 19 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gent come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kortrijk are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.95 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gent in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Pre-Season
Gent
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Gent in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 10W 7D 21L in their last 38 games (0.97 PPG), while Gent have gone 18W 11D 9L in their last 38 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Gent away?
Gent's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.11 PPG; Gent away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kortrijk and Gent runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Gent won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kortrijk's record when hosting Gent specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Kortrijk
1
Draws
5
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Gent?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 2, Gent have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Gent 1-2 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Gent?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 53%, Gent 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Kortrijk) and 42% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Gent in 32%; Kortrijk have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 53% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Kortrijk's recent games and 42% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Gent tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Gent in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gent defy the odds to beat Kortrijk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent beat Kortrijk 0-1 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.29 xG and Gent 1.07 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kortrijk fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Gent attack 1.05 / defence 1.05, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 39% | Draw 33% | Gent 28%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Gent win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 53%, Gent 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gent's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Gent arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Gent (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.